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Short-Term Employment Persistence for Welfare Recipients: The "Effects" of Wages, Industry, Occupation and Firm

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  • Timothy J. Bartik

    ()
    (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

Abstract

Using data from 13 years (1983-95) of the March Current Population Survey, this study examines how the types of jobs held by welfare mothers during the preceding year affects their employment and earnings at the time of the March interview. The estimates suggest that the Using data from 13 years (1983-95) of the March Current Population Survey, this study examines how the types of jobs held by welfare mothers during the preceding year affects their employment and earnings at the time of the March interview. The estimates suggest that the wages of last year's job affect current employment and earnings, but the effects of wages are more modest than might be expected. The industry and occupation of last year's job make a great deal of difference, with industry being more important than occupation. The industries with the most positive effects on current employment are hospitals and educational services; jobs held last year in the temporary help industry are negatively correlated with current employment. The size of the firm employing a welfare recipient last year has no effect on March's employment or earnings. These results suggest that welfare-to-work programs should consider efforts to target higher-wage jobs or jobs in industries such as hospitals or educational services. wages of last year's job affect current employment and earnings, but the effects of wages are more modest than might be expected. The industry and occupation of last year's job make a great deal of difference, with industry being more important than occupation. The industries with the most positive effects on current employment are hospitals and educational services; jobs held last year in the temporary help industry are negatively correlated with current employment. The size of the firm employing a welfare recipient last year has no effect on March's employment or earnings. These results suggest that welfare-to-work programs should consider efforts to target higher-wage jobs or jobs in industries such as hospitals or educational services.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in its series Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles with number 97-46.

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Date of creation: Jun 1997
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Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:97-46

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Keywords: welfare; welfare-to-work; wages; Bartik;

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References

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  1. Blank, Rebecca M & Ruggles, Patricia, 1994. "Short-Term Recidivism among Public-Assistance Recipients," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 49-53, May.
  2. Suits, Daniel B, 1984. "Dummy Variables: Mechanics v. Interpretation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 177-80, February.
  3. Kennedy, Peter, 1986. "Interpreting Dummy Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 174-75, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Kitty Stewart, 2007. "Employment trajectories for mothers in low-skilled work: Evidence from the British Lone Parent Cohort," CASE Papers /122, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
  2. Randall W. Eberts & Christopher J. O'Leary, 1996. "Design of the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services System and Evaluation in Michigan," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 96-41, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  3. Carolyn J. Heinrich & Peter R. Mueser & Kenneth R. Troske, 2005. "Welfare to Temporary Work: Implications for Labor Market Outcomes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 154-173, February.
  4. Bosley, Stacie A., 2004. "Dead-End Jobs Or Stepping Stones? The Long-Run Consequences Of Early Industry And Occupation," Working Papers 14301, University of Minnesota, The Food Industry Center.
  5. Peter R. Mueser & Kenneth R. Troske & David R. Stevens, 2007. "The Impact of Welfare Reform on Leaver Characteristics, Employment and Recidivism: An Analysis of Maryland and Missouri," Working Papers 0720, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
  6. Timothy J. Bartik, 1998. "The Labor Supply Effects of Welfare Reform," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 98-53, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  7. Julia Lane & David Stevens, 2000. "Welfare-to-Work Policy: Employer Hiring and Retention of Former Welfare Recipients," JCPR Working Papers 19, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  8. David Card & Charles Michalopoulos & Philip K. Robins, 2001. "The Limits to Wage Growth: Measuring the Growth Rate of Wages For Recent Welfare Leavers," NBER Working Papers 8444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Peter R. Mueser & Christopher T. King, 2004. "Welfare and Work in the 1990s: Experiences in Six Cities," Working Papers 0409, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 20 Oct 2004.
  10. Peter R. Mueser & Kenneth Troske & William J. Carrington, 2002. "The Impact of Welfare Reform on Leaver Characteristics, Employment and Recidivism," Working Papers 0205, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 26 Aug 2002.

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