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Adaptive Learning in Models with Lagged Variables

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Author Info
Wilfredo Leiva
Abstract

In this work I study the stability of the dynamics generated by adaptive learning processes in intertemporal economies with lagged variables. I prove that determinacy of the steady state is a necessary condition for the convergence of the learning dynamics and I show that the reciprocal is not true characterizing the economies where convergence holds. In the case of existence of cycles I show that there is not, in general, a relationship between determinacy and convergence of the learning process to the cycle. I also analyze the expectational stability of these equilibria.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 413.

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Date of creation: Oct 1999
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:413

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Related research
Keywords: Intertemporal equilibrium; models with lagged variables; adaptive learning processes; expectational stability;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Shurojit Chatterji, 1995. "Temporary Eq'Uilibrium Dynamics With Bayesian Learning," Working Papers. Serie AD 1995-09, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
  4. James Bullard, 1991. "Learning equilibria," Working Papers 1991-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Reichlin, Pietro, 1986. "Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 89-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Philippe Michel & Alain Venditti, 1997. "Optimal growth and cycles in overlapping generations models (*)," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 511-528.
  7. Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1990. "Stability of Cycles with Adaptive Learning Rules," DELTA Working Papers 90-25, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  8. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Laroque, Guy, 1986. "Stability of cycles and expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 138-151, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Farmer, Roger E. A., 1986. "Deficits and cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Boldrin, Michele & Rustichini, Aldo, 1994. "Growth and Indeterminacy in Dynamic Models with Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 323-42, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Guesnerie, Roger, 1993. "Theoretical tests of the rational expectations hypothesis in economic dynamical models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 847-864. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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