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Adaptive learning in models with lagged variables

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  • Wilfredo Leiva
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    Abstract

    In this work I study the stability of the dynamics generated by adaptive learning processes in intertemporal economies with lagged variables. I prove that determinacy of the steady state is a necessary condition for the convergence of the learning dynamics and I show that the reciprocal is not true characterizing the economies where convergence holds. In the case of existence of cycles I show that there is not, in general, a relationship between determinacy and convergence of the learning process to the cycle. I also analyze the expectational stability of these equilibria.

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    File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/413.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 413.

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    Date of creation: Oct 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:413

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    Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

    Related research

    Keywords: Intertemporal equilibrium; models with lagged variables; adaptive learning processes; expectational stability;

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    1. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Laroque, Guy, 1986. "Stability of cycles and expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 138-151, October.
    2. Chatterji Shurojit, 1995. "Temporary Equilibrium Dynamics with Bayesian Learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 590-598, December.
    3. James Bullard, 1991. "Learning equilibria," Working Papers 1991-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
    5. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.
    6. Boldrin, Michele & Rustichini, Aldo, 1994. "Growth and Indeterminacy in Dynamic Models with Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 323-42, March.
    7. de Vilder, Robin, 1996. "Complicated Endogenous Business Cycles under Gross Substitutability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 416-442, November.
    8. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
    9. Philippe Michel & Alain Venditti, 1997. "Optimal growth and cycles in overlapping generations models (*)," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 511-528.
    10. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
    11. Farmer, Roger E. A., 1986. "Deficits and cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, October.
    12. Guesnerie, Roger, 1993. "Theoretical tests of the rational expectations hypothesis in economic dynamical models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 847-864.
    13. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
    14. Reichlin, Pietro, 1986. "Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 89-102, October.
    15. Hommes, Cars H., 1991. "Adaptive learning and roads to chaos : The case of the cobweb," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 127-132, June.
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