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Structural Breaks in Trade and Income Per Capita in ASEAN-5 Countries: An Application of Innovational Outlier Models

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The founder members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-5) – Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore – increasingly adopted outward-oriented policies in trade and investment by enforcing reforms in the mid-1980s. This paper investigates the existence of endogenously determined structural breaks of the trade and income per capita by using historical time series data during the period from 1970 to 2003 for the ASEAN-5 by applying an Innovational Outliner (IO) model in the presence of a potential structural break. We find that significant structural breaks occurred for trade per capita in the mid-1980s, which coincides with the recession in the region. We also find that significant structural breaks occurred for Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in 1997, which coincides with the Asian crisis. The Philippines experienced structural breaks in 1985, which coincides with a recession.

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File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012225.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp06-12.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp06-12

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Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-3659
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://business.uow.edu.au/econ/index.html
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Keywords: Trade and GDP per capita; IO model; structural break;

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  1. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  2. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2002. "The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Manufacturing Sector Performance in Developing Countries: A Survey of the Literature," Economics Working Papers wp02-07, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  3. Ha Yan Lee & Luca Antonio Ricci & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "Once Again, is Openness Good for Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  5. Mosayeb Pahlavani & Abbas Valadkhani & Andrew C. Worthington, 2005. "The impact of financial deregulation on monetary aggregates and interest rates in Australia," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 157-163, May.
  6. Joshua J. Lewer & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2003. "How Large Is International Trade's Effect on Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 363-396, 07.
  7. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Sanidas, Elias, 2005. "The Impact of Unilateral and Regional Trade Liberalisation on the Intra-ASEAN 5 Founding Nations' Exports and Export-GDP Nexus," Economics Working Papers wp05-14, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
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