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The Impact of technology and demand shocks on structural dynamics: evidence from Austrian manufacturing

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  • Hölzl,Werner
  • Reinstaller,Andreas

    (MERIT)

Abstract

This paper examines the link between structural change between and within industries. We analyse the influence of sector specific developments in productivity and demand on net entry and employment in 19 industrial sectors of the Austrian economy. Based on the model of structural dynamics of Pasinetti, we develop an identification scheme that allows us to extract technology and demand shocks, by means of a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model with long-run restrictions. We study the patterns of productivity and demand shocks across industries by means of a principal components analysis and find that sectoral and macro-economic developments in demand strongly correlate, while this is not the case for technology shocks. Impulse-response analysis shows that for almost all sectors productivity growth rates experience an immediate increase to positive technology shocks while the hours worked decline as conjectured by Pasinetti. Finally, we use the identified shocks as explanatory variables in time- series cross section regressions on net-entry and employment data. Both types of shocks are able to explain dynamics on the industry level in terms of employment and sales but not firm dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT) in its series Research Memorandum with number 015.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:unm:umamer:2004015

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Keywords: microeconomics ;

References

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  1. Harry Bloch & Michael Olive, 2001. "Pricing over the Cycle," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 99-108, August.
  2. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Metcalfe, John S. & Foster, John & Ramlogan, Ronnie, 2003. "Adaptive Economic Growth," Centre on Regulation and Competition (CRC) Working papers 30637, University of Manchester, Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM).
  4. Montobbio, Fabio, 2002. "An evolutionary model of industrial growth and structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-414, December.
  5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995. "Sectoral Solow Residuals," NBER Working Papers 5286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Peneder, Michael, 2003. "Industrial structure and aggregate growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 427-448, December.
  7. Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G.M., 1992. "The Life-Cycle of Competitive Industry," Papers 92-09, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
  8. Charles L. Evans, 1991. "Productivity shocks and real business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Harberger, Arnold C, 1998. "A Vision of the Growth Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 1-32, March.
  10. Ian Domowitz & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1986. "Business Cycles and the Relationship Between Concentration and Price-Cost Margins," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, Spring.
  11. Malerba, Franco, 2002. "Sectoral systems of innovation and production," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 247-264, February.
  12. Jesus Felipe & Franklin M. Fisher, 2003. "Aggregation in Production Functions: What Applied Economists should Know," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2-3), pages 208-262, 05.
  13. Steven Klepper, 2002. "Firm Survival and the Evolution of Oligopoly," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(1), pages 37-61, Spring.
  14. Esben Sloth Andersen, 1998. "Escaping Satiation in an Evolutionary Model of Structural Economic Dynamics," DRUID Working Papers 98-9, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  15. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  16. Mansfield, Edwin, 1985. "How Rapidly Does New Industrial Technology Leak Out?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 217-23, December.
  17. Dosi, Giovanni, 1997. "Opportunities, Incentives and the Collective Patterns of Technological Change," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1530-47, September.
  18. Mowery, David & Rosenberg, Nathan, 1979. "The influence of market demand upon innovation: a critical review of some recent empirical studies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 102-153, April.
  19. Pasinetti,Luigi, 1993. "Structural Economic Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521432825, April.
  20. Winter, Sidney G., 1984. "Schumpeterian competition in alternative technological regimes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(3-4), pages 287-320.
  21. Gunther Tichy, 2000. "The Innovation Potential and Thematic Leadership of Austrian Industries: An Interpretation of the Technology Delphi with Regard to the Old Structures/High-performance Paradox," Empirica, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 411-436, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Kim, Sangho & Lim, Hyunjoon & Park, Donghyun, 2010. "Productivity and Employment in a Developing Country: Some Evidence from Korea," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 514-522, April.

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