Back to the future: economic rationality and maximum entropy prediction
AbstractAn information-theoretic thought experiment is developed to clarify why the maximum entropy methodology is appropriate for predicting the equilibrium state of economic systems. As a first step, object allocation problems, modeled as knapsack problems, are shown to be equivalent to congestion games under weak assumptions. This proves the existence of finite improvement paths linking initial conditions and Nash equilibria. The existence of these improvement paths is precisely what enables the use of maximum entropy to make predictions concerning the equilibrium state. Finally an illustration of this predictive power is provided through an application to the Schelling model of segregation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 1202.
Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
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