Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting Commodity Prices with Mixed-Frequency Data: An OLS-Based Generalized ADL Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Yu-chin Chen

    (University of Washington)

  • Wen-Jen Tsay

    (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica)

Abstract

This paper presents a generalized autoregressive distributed lag (GADL) model for conducting regression estimations that involve mixed-frequency data. As an example, we show that daily asset market information - currency and equity market movements - can produce forecasts of quarterly commodity price changes that are superior to those in the previous literature. Following the traditional ADL literature, our estimation strategy relies on a Vandermonde matrix to parameterize the weighting functions for higher-frequency observations. Accordingly, inferences can be obtained under ordinary linear least squares principles without Kalman filtering or non-linear optimizations. Our findings provide an easy-to-use method for conducting mixed data-sampling analysis as well as for forecasting world commodity price movements.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1782214
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Washington, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number UWEC-2011-06.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2011-06

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Box 353330, Seattle, WA 98193-3330
Email:
Web page: http://www.econ.washington.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Marcy Burchfield & Henry G. Overman & Diego Puga & Matthew A. Turner, 2006. "Causes of Sprawl: A Portrait from Space," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(2), pages 587-633, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Are the Commodity Currencies an Exception to the Rule?," Working Papers UWEC-2006-28, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2011-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael Goldblatt).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.