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The Behaviour of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States

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  • Vincent Hogan

    (University College Dublin)

Abstract

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in the United States in recent years despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that while the NAIRU may have fallen slightly, it has not fallen by an amount sufficient to explain the recent behaviour of inflation. The main explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be that there have been favorable price shocks; in particular, the cost of imports has fallen sharply as the dollar has appreciated.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2000/WP00.16.pdf
File Function: First version, 2000
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School Of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200016.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jun 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200016

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation; Philips Curve;

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  1. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Charles Adams & David T. Coe, 1990. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 232-293, June.
  3. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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