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The Behaviour of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States

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Author Info
Vincent Hogan (University College Dublin)

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Abstract

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in the United States in recent years despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that while the NAIRU may have fallen slightly, it has not fallen by an amount sufficient to explain the recent behaviour of inflation. The main explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be that there have been favorable price shocks; in particular, the cost of imports has fallen sharply as the dollar has appreciated.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2000/WP00.16.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2000
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by School Of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200016.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jun 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200016

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; Philips Curve;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Adams, Charles & Coe, David T., 1989. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," MPRA Paper 8622, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-3.

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