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Integration and Contagion in US Housing Markets

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Author Info

  • John Cotter

    (School of Business, University College Dublin)

  • Stuart Gabriel

    (Anderson School of Management, University of California - Los Angeles)

  • Richard Roll

    (Anderson School of Management, University of California - Los Angeles)

Abstract

This paper explores integration and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. The analysis applies Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price repeat sales indexes from 384 metropolitan areas to estimate a multi-factor model of U.S. housing market integration. It then identifies statistical jumps in metropolitan house price returns as well as MSA contemporaneous and lagged jump correlations. Finally, the paper evaluates contagion in housing markets via parametric assessment of MSA house price spatial dynamics. A R-squared measure reveals an upward trend in MSA housing market integration over the 2000s to approximately .83 in 2010. Among California MSAs, the trend was especially pronounced, as average integration increased from about .55 in 1997 to close to .95 in 2008! The 2000s bubble period similarly was characterized by elevated incidence of statistical jumps in housing returns. Again, jump incidence and MSA jump correlations were especially high in California. Analysis of contagion among California markets indicates that house price returns in San Francisco often led those of surrounding communities; in contrast, southern California MSA house price returns appeared to move largely in lock step. The high levels of housing market integration evidenced in the analysis suggest limited investor opportunity to diversify away MSA-specific housing risk. Further, results suggest that macro and policy shocks propagate through a large number of MSA housing markets. Research findings are relevant to all market participants, including institutional investors in MBS as well as those who regulate housing, the housing GSEs, mortgage lenders, and related financial institutions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Geary Institute, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 201131.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 08 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201131

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Keywords: Integration; correlation; contagion; house price returns;

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References

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  1. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Richard Priestley, 2006. "EMU and European Stock Market Integration," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 365-392, January.
  2. Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Karl Case & John Cotter & Stuart Gabriel, 2011. "Housing risk and return: Evidence from a housing asset-pricing model," Papers 1103.5971, arXiv.org.
  4. Jiang, George J. & Oomen, Roel C.A., 2008. "Testing for jumps when asset prices are observed with noise-a "swap variance" approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 352-370, June.
  5. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  6. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Hogan, Ked, 2007. "Characterizing World Market Integration through Time," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 915-940, December.
  7. Schotman, Peter C. & Zalewska, Anna, 2006. "Non-synchronous trading and testing for market integration in Central European emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 462-494, October.
  8. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
  9. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2009. "Global market integration: An alternative measure and its application," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 214-232, November.
  10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell & Lundblad, Christian T & Siegel, Stephan, 2010. "What Segments Equity Markets?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June.
  12. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation ," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  13. Chambet, Anthony & Gibson, Rajna, 2008. "Financial integration, economic instability and trade structure in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 654-675, June.
  14. Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
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Cited by:
  1. David Genesove & Lu Han, 2012. "A Spatial Look at Housing Boom and Bust Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 105-141 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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