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Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations

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  • Drusilla K. Brown
  • Rajesh Chadha
  • Alan V. Deardorff
  • Robert M. Stern

Abstract

The Indian economy has experienced a major transformation during the decade of the 1990s. Apart from the impact of various unilateral economic reforms undertaken since 1991, the economy also had to reorient itself to the changing multilateral trade discipline within the newly written GATT/WTO framework. The unilateral trade policy measures have encompassed exchange-rate policy, foreign investment, external borrowing, import licensing, custom tariffs, and export subsidies. The multilateral aspect of India's WTO commitments regarding trade in goods and services, trade-related investment measures, and intellectual property rights. The present study analyzes the economic effects on India and other major trading countries/regions of the Uruguay Round (UR) trade liberalization and the liberalization that might be undertaken in a new WTO negotiating round. India's welfare gain is expected to be 1.1% ($4.7 billion over its 2005 GDP) when the UR scenarios get fully implemented. The additional welfare gain is an estimated 2.7% ($11.4 billion) when the assumed future WTO round of multilateral trade liberalization is achieved. Resources would be allocated in India to the labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, clothing, leather and leather products, and food, beverages, and tobacco. These sectors would also experience growth in output and exports. Real returns to both labor and capital would increase in the economy. The scale effect (percent change in output per firm) is positive for all the ten sectors of manufacturing, indicating that Indian firms become more efficient than before. Finally, even if India undertakes unilateral trade liberalization of the order indicated in the WTO multilateral scenarios, it would still benefit, although less so than with multilateral liberalization.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Tufts University in its series Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University with number 0107.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:tuf:tuftec:0107

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  1. Yannis M. Ioannides, 2004. "Topologies Of Social Interactions," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 287, Econometric Society.
  2. Drusilla Brown, 2001. "Child Labour in Latin America: Policy and Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 761-778, 06.
  3. Brown, Drusilla K & Stern, Robert M, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-86, May.
  4. Chadha, R. & Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 2000. "Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 459, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  5. Fullerton, Don & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2002. "Tax incidence," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 26, pages 1787-1872 Elsevier.
  6. Hoekman, Bernard, 1995. "Tentative first steps : an assessment of the Uruguay Round agreement on services," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1455, The World Bank.
  7. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2001. "Impacts on NAFTA Members of Multilateral and Regional Trading Arrangements and Initiatives and Harmonization of NAFTA's External Tariffs," Working Papers 471, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  8. Ioannides, Yannis M., 2004. "Neighborhood income distributions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 435-457, November.
  9. repec:fth:michin:453 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Karen Eggleston, 2001. "Multitasking, Competition and Provider Payment," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0101, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  11. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2001. "CGE Modeling and Analysis of Multilateral and Regional Negotiating Options," Working Papers 468, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  12. Rajesh Chadha & Sanjib Pohit & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 1998. "Analysis of India's Policy Reforms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 235-259, 03.
  13. Yannis Ioannides, 2001. "Interactive Property Valuations," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0102, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  14. Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 1993. "Protection and Real Wages: Old and New Trade Theories and Their Empirical Conterparts," Working Papers 331, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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Cited by:
  1. Drusilla K. Brown & Rajesh Chadha & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0107, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  2. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2004. "A different approach to WTO negotiations in services," CPB Discussion Paper 36, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. George Norman & Lynne Pepall & Dan Richards, 2001. "Versioning, Brand-Stretching, and the Evolution of e-Commerce Markets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0114, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  4. Martha Rodríguez & Bruno Seminario, 2006. "Efectos potenciales de la desgravación arancelaria de un Tratado de Libre Comercio con Estados Unidos," Working Papers 06-12, Departamento de Economía, Universidad del Pacífico, revised Dec 2006.
  5. John Whalley, 2004. "Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1223-1253, 08.

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