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CGE Modeling and Analysis of Multilateral and Regional Negotiating Options

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Author Info
Drusilla K. Brown (Tufts University)
Alan V. Deardorff (University of Michigan)
Robert M Stern (University of Michigan)

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Abstract

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of: the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations completed in 1993-94; a prospective new round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations; and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that the Uruguay Round negotiations increased global economic welfare by $75.1 billion annually, with gains of $12.9 billion for the United States and $15.6 billion for Japan. An assumed reduction of all post-Uruguay Round tariffs on agricultural and industrial products and of all services barriers by 33 percent in a new WTO trade round is estimated to increase world welfare by $613.0 billion, with gains of $177.3 billion for the United States and $123.7 billion for Japan. If there were global free trade with all post-Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, then world welfare would increase by $1.9 trillion, with gains of $537.2 billion (5.9 percent of GNP) for the United States and $374.8 billion (5.8 percent of GNP) for Japan. Elimination of APEC-member country bilateral post-Uruguay Round tariffs on agricultural and industrial products and services barriers is estimated to increase world welfare by $764.4 billion, with gains of $294.7 billion for the United States and $283.1 billion for Japan and losses of $7.0 billion for the European Union/EFTA and $1.0 billion for South Asia. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, South Korea, and Chile and an ASEAN Plus-3 FTA involving Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some member countries. Depending on the agreement, there may be detrimental welfare effects on some nonmembers. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalization are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.

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File URL: http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers451-475/r468.pdf
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Paper provided by Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan in its series Working Papers with number 468.

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Length: 51 Pages
Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:468

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brown, Drusilla K. & Deardorff, Alan V. & Stern, Robert M., 1996. "Computational Analysis of the Economic Effects of an East Asian Preferential Trading Bloc," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 37-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
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  3. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 2000. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0001, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bernard Hoekman, 2000. "The next round of services negotiations: identifying priorities and options," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 31-52. [Downloadable!]
  6. Anne O. Krueger, 2000. "NAFTA's Effects: A Preliminary Assessment," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(6), pages 761-775, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Thomas W. Hertel, 2000. "Potential gains from reducing trade barriers in manufacturing, services and agriculture," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 77-104. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2005. "Computational Analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," Working Papers 528, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2001. "Impacts on NAFTA Members of Multilateral and Regional Trading Arrangements and Initiatives and Harmonization of NAFTA's External Tariffs," Working Papers 471, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  3. Yin-wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2004. "The Suitability of A Greater China Currency Union," Working Papers 122004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Drusilla K. Brown & Rajesh Chadha & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0107, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2002. "Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan," Working Papers 490, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2004. "Computational Analysis of the U.S FTA with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU)," Working Papers 514, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  7. Drusilla Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert Stern, 2006. "An Analysis of the U.S.-SACU FTA Negotiations," Working Papers 545, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hess, Sebastian, 2005. "An Econometric Model of CGE Simulations," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24713, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  9. Timothy A. Wise, . "04-02 "The Paradox of Agricultural Subsidies: Measurement Issues, Agricultural Dumping, and Policy Reform"," GDAE Working Papers 04-02, GDAE, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2004. "A different approach to WTO negotiations in services," CPB Discussion Papers 36, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  11. George Norman & Lynne Pepall & Dan Richards, 2001. "Versioning, Brand-Stretching, and the Evolution of e-Commerce Markets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0114, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lucian Cernat & Sam Laird & Alessandro Turrini, 2003. "How Important are Market Access Issues for Developing Countries in the Doha Agenda?," International Trade 0302004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2003. "Developing Countries' Stake in the Doha Round," Working Papers 495, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  14. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2004. "Computational Analysis of the Menu of U.S.-Japan Trade Policies," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-63, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Kozo Kiyota & Robert Stern, 2007. "An Assessment of the Economic Effects of the Menu of U.S. Trade Policies," Global Economy Journal, International Trade and Finance Association, vol. 5(4), pages 22. [Downloadable!]
  16. Yin-wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2005. "An Output Perspective on a Northeast Asia Currency Union," Working Papers 162005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Wilhelm Kohler, 2002. "Issues of US-EU Trade Policy," Economics working papers 2002_03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
  18. Sebastian Hess & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2007. "Assessing General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Doha Round Outcomes using Meta-Analysis," cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 67, cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany).. [Downloadable!]
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