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Computational Analysis of the Menu of U.S.-Japan Trade Policies

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  • Drusilla K. Brown
  • Kozo Kiyota
  • Robert M. Stern

Abstract

We have used the Michigan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of U.S.-Japan trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential U.S. and Japan bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers by the two countries, and global (multilateral) free trade. The U.S. preferential agreements include the FTAs approved by the U.S. Congress with Chile and Singapore in 2003, those signed with Central America, Australia, and Morocco and awaiting Congressional approval in 2004, and prospective FTAs with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Thailand, and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). The Japanese preferential agreements include the bilateral FTA with Singapore signed in 2002 and prospective FTAs with Chile, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, and Thailand. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States and Japan are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small in the United States and Japan, but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalization. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on nonmember countries for some of the FTAs analyzed. Data limitations precluded analysis of the welfare effects of the different FTA rules of origin and other discriminatory arrangements. In comparison to the welfare gains from the U.S. and Japan bilateral FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalization by the United States, Japan, and the FTA partners, and from global (multilateral) free trade are shown to

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series with number d04-63.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:hst:hstdps:d04-63

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References

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  1. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2002. "Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan," Working Papers 490, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  2. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2000. "Computational Analysis of the Accession of Chile to the NAFTA and Western Hemisphere Integration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 145-174, 02.
  3. W. Hertel, Thomas, 2001. "Dynamic Effects of the “New Age” Free Trade Agreement between Japan and Singapore," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 446-484.
  4. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2005. "Computational Analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," Working Papers 528, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  5. J. Francois & H. van Meijl & F. van Tongeren, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries under the Doha Round," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-060/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Aug 2003.
  6. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2005. "Computational Analysis of the U.S FTAs with Central America, Australia, And Morocco," Working Papers 527, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  7. repec:fth:coluec:9596-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  9. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 1989. "U.S.-Canada Bilateral Tariff Elimination: The Role of Product Differentiation and Market Structure," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policies for International Competitiveness, pages 217-254 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. W. Jill Harrison & K.R. Pearson, 1994. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-64, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  11. Thomas W. Hertel, 2000. "Potential gains from reducing trade barriers in manufacturing, services and agriculture," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 77-104.
  12. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2001. "CGE Modeling and Analysis of Multilateral and Regional Negotiating Options," Working Papers 468, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  13. J. Francois & H. van Meijl & F. van Tongeren, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries under the Doha Round," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-060/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Aug 2003.
  14. Brown, D.K. & Stern, R.M., 1988. "Computable General Equilibrium Estimates Of The Gains From U.S.-Canadian Trade Liberalization," Working Papers 220, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  15. Warwick McKibbin & Jong-Wha Lee & Inkyo Cheong, 2004. "A dynamic analysis of the Korea-Japan free trade area: simulations with the G-cubed Asia-Pacific model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 3-32.
  16. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2004. "Computational Analysis of the U.S FTA with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU)," Working Papers 514, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  17. James Levinsohn & Margaret McMillan, 2004. "Computational Analysis of the U.S FTAs with Central America, Australia, And Morocco," Working Papers 526, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chong Soo Yuen & Jung Hur, 2007. "Overlapping Free Trade Agreements of Singapore-USA-Japan: A Computational Analysis," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0711, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
  2. Deardorff, Alan V. & Stern, Robert M., 2009. "Alternatives to the Doha Round," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 526-539, July.
  3. Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2007. "What Should the Developing Countries Do in the Context of the Current Impasse of the Doha Round?," Working Papers 559, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  4. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2008. "An Analysis of a US-Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Free Trade Agreement," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 461-484, March.
  5. Drusilla Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert Stern, 2006. "An Analysis of the U.S.-SACU FTA Negotiations," Working Papers 545, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  6. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2005. "Computational analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 153-185, August.
  7. Escap (ed.), 2008. "Emerging Trade Issues For Policymakers In Developing Countries In Asia And The Pacific," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), volume 64, number tipub2526.
  8. Alan V. Deardorff, 2007. "Trade Policy Options for Korea Trade Policy Options for Korea Outside the Doha Round Outside the Doha Round," Working Papers 568, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  9. Jung Hur & Backhoon Song, 2007. "What Kinds of Countries Have More Free Trade Partner Countries? - Count Regression Analysis," Trade Working Papers 22002, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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