IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tsa/wpaper/0054fin.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Trading Activity by Trader Types on Asymmetric Volatility in Nasdaq-100 Index Futures

Author

Listed:
  • Jullavut Kittiakaraskun

    (University of Texas at San Antonio)

  • Yiuman Tse

    (University of Texas at San Antonio)

  • George H.K. Wang

    (George Mason University)

Abstract

We test the hypothesis of Avramov, Chordia, and Goyal (2006) that asymmetric volatility is governed by the trading dynamics of informed and uninformed traders; uninformed trades increase volatility following asset price declines while informed trades decrease volatility following asset price increases. Using a dataset that directly distinguishes between informed and uninformed trades, we find that only the trading activity of small liquidity traders (i.e. retail investors) accounts for the asymmetric volatility relationship. Thus, the hypothesis of Avramov et al. is only partially supported.

Suggested Citation

  • Jullavut Kittiakaraskun & Yiuman Tse & George H.K. Wang, 2011. "The Impact of Trading Activity by Trader Types on Asymmetric Volatility in Nasdaq-100 Index Futures," Working Papers 0021, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsa:wpaper:0054fin
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://interim.business.utsa.edu/wps/fin/0021FIN-257-2010.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    2. Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-434.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    4. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    5. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    6. Antonios Antoniou & Phil Holmes & Richard Priestley, 1998. "The effects of stock index futures trading on stock index volatility: An analysis of the asymmetric response of volatility to news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 151-166, April.
    7. Wu, Guojun, 2001. "The Determinants of Asymmetric Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 837-859.
    8. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    9. George H. K. Wang & Jot Yau, 2000. "Trading volume, bid–ask spread, and price volatility in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(10), pages 943-970, November.
    10. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    12. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 14, pages 547-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Zhiyao Chen & Robert T. Daigler, 2008. "An examination of the complementary volume–volatility information theories," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(10), pages 963-992, October.
    14. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 2005. "How Often to Sample a Continuous-Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 351-416.
    15. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2004. "Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 485-518, June.
    16. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    17. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    18. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
    19. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Robert T. Daigler & Marilyn K. Wiley, 1999. "The Impact of Trader Type on the Futures Volatility‐Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2297-2316, December.
    21. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
    22. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    23. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Amit Goyal, 2006. "The Impact of Trades on Daily Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1241-1277.
    24. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    25. Bandi, Federico M. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Separating microstructure noise from volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 655-692, March.
    26. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. "Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-2034, December.
    27. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    28. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    29. Alex Frino & Johan Bjursell & George H. K. Wang & Andrew Lepone, 2008. "Large trades and intraday futures price behavior," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(12), pages 1147-1181, December.
    30. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1991. "A Theory of Trading in Stock Index Futures," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 17-51.
    31. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    32. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, February.
    33. Grinblatt, Mark & Keloharju, Matti, 2000. "The investment behavior and performance of various investor types: a study of Finland's unique data set," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-67, January.
    34. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021.
    2. Aris Kartsaklas, 2018. "Trader Type Effects On The Volatility‐Volume Relationship Evidence From The Kospi 200 Index Futures Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 226-250, July.
    3. Jokipii, Terhi, 2006. "Forecasting market crashes: further international evidence," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2006, Bank of Finland.
    4. Chen, Shuning & Zhang, Wei & Feng, Xu & Xiong, Xiong, 2020. "Asymmetry of retail investors’ attention and asymmetric volatility: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jokipii, Terhi, 2006. "Forecasting market crashes : further international evidence," Research Discussion Papers 22/2006, Bank of Finland.
    7. Xilong Chen & Eric Ghysels, 2011. "News--Good or Bad--and Its Impact on Volatility Predictions over Multiple Horizons," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 46-81, October.
    8. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2000. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm146, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti & Aris Kartsaklas, 2021. "Investors' trading behaviour and stock market volatility during crisis periods: A dual long‐memory model for the Korean Stock Exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4441-4461, July.
    10. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2016. "Asymmetric connectedness on the U.S. stock market: Bad and good volatility spillovers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 55-78.
    11. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    12. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    13. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Is there a risk-return trade-off in cryptocurrency markets? The case of Bitcoin," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    14. Francesco Audrino & Yujia Hu, 2016. "Volatility Forecasting: Downside Risk, Jumps and Leverage Effect," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, February.
    15. Dzieliński, Michał & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Talpsepp, Tõnn, 2018. "Asymmetric attention and volatility asymmetry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 59-67.
    16. Ma, Chaoqun & Mi, Xianhua & Cai, Zongwu, 2020. "Nonlinear and time-varying risk premia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    18. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Roll, Richard & Schwartz, Eduardo & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2014. "Trading activity in the equity market and its contingent claims: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 13-35.
    20. Xiang, Ju & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2014. "Intraday asymmetric liquidity and asymmetric volatility in FTSE-100 futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 134-148.
    21. Jinliang Li, 2016. "When noise trading fades, volatility rises," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 475-512, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informed and uninformed traders; asymmetric volatility; Nasdaq-100 index futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tsa:wpaper:0054fin. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wendy Frost (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbutsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.