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Leverage, liquidity and crisis: A simulation study

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  • Antoine Godin
  • Stephen Kinsella

Abstract

We study the interactions of banks and ?rms within a leverage cycle to understand how capacity utilisation and capital investment interact with funding costs, leverage by banks and ?rms, and liquidity. We show in a simulation study that when ?rms can grow and die by becoming insolvent, and when banks can grow and die as their bad debts increase to unsustainable levels, the real economy cycles around a leverage cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit in its series ASSRU Discussion Papers with number 1205.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:trn:utwpas:1205

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Keywords: Leverage; capital investment; capacity utilization; simulation modeling.;

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  1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sørensen, Bent E & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2011. "Leverage Across Firms, Banks and Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Aivazian, Varouj A. & Ge, Ying & Qiu, Jiaping, 2005. "The impact of leverage on firm investment: Canadian evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 277-291, March.
  3. Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 7570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. A. Michael Spence, 1977. "Entry, Capacity, Investment and Oligopolistic Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(2), pages 534-544, Autumn.
  5. Whited, Toni M, 1992. " Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-60, September.
  6. Michael B. Devereux, 2010. "Leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 45, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  7. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-44, September.
  8. Blandina Oliveira & Adelino Fortunato, 2006. "Firm Growth and Liquidity Constraints: A Dynamic Analysis," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 139-156, October.
  9. Robinson, Joan, 1969. "The Degree of Monopoly in the Kaldor-Mirrlees Growth Model: A Further Note," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(106), pages 260-62, April.
  10. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Driffield, Nigel & Pal, Sarmistha & Roland, Isabelle, 2010. "Excess Leverage and Productivity Growth in Emerging Economies: Is There A Threshold Effect?," IZA Discussion Papers 4834, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
  12. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Giorgio Fagiolo & Alessandra Luzzi, 2006. "Do liquidity constraints matter in explaining firm size and growth? Some evidence from the Italian manufacturing industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 1-39, February.
  14. David J. Denis & Valeriy Sibilkov, 2010. "Financial Constraints, Investment, and the Value of Cash Holdings," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 247-269, January.
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