IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tor/tecipa/tecipa-765.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Democracy and The Opioid Epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Carolina Arteaga
  • Victoria Barone

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of the opioid epidemic on political outcomes by leveraging rich geographic variation in exposure to the crisis. We study its effect on the Republican vote share in House and presidential elections from 1982 to 2020. Our results suggest that greater exposure to the opioid epidemic continuously increased the Republican vote share, starting in the early 2000s. This higher vote share translated into additional seats won by Republicans in the House from 2014 until 2020, as well as House members holding more conservative views. These effects are explained by voters changing their views rather than compositional changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Arteaga & Victoria Barone, 2023. "Democracy and The Opioid Epidemic," Working Papers tecipa-765, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-765
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/public/workingPapers/tecipa-765.pdf
    File Function: Main Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    2. Nicole Siegal, 2023. "Exposure to Deaths of Despair and U.S. Presidential Election Outcomes," Working Papers 202307, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    3. Bo E. Honoré & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1675-1698, November.
    4. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from US Counties," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 47-64, March.
    5. Park, Sujeong & Powell, David, 2021. "Is the rise in illicit opioids affecting labor supply and disability claiming rates?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Kimberly Cornaggia & John Hund & Giang Nguyen & Zihan Ye, 2022. "Opioid Crisis Effects on Municipal Finance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 2019-2066.
    7. Bor, J., 2017. "Diverging life expectancies and voting patterns in the 2016 US Presidential Election," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 107(10), pages 1560-1562.
    8. Nico Voigtländer & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2012. "Persecution Perpetuated: The Medieval Origins of Anti-Semitic Violence in Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1339-1392.
    9. Marie Connolly & Miles Corak & Catherine Haeck, 2019. "Intergenerational Mobility Between and Within Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 595-641.
    10. Stefano DellaVigna & Ethan Kaplan, 2007. "The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1187-1234.
    11. repec:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2017.303945_8 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Cohle, Zachary & Ortega, Alberto, 2023. "The effect of the opioid crisis on patenting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 493-521.
    13. Levi Boxell & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2024. "Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 557-565, March.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    15. Powell, David & Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo & Taylor, Erin, 2020. "How increasing medical access to opioids contributes to the opioid epidemic: Evidence from Medicare Part D," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Danny Yagan, 2019. "Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2505-2558.
    17. Rafael Di Tella & Ramiro H. Gálvez & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2021. "Does Social Media cause Polarization? Evidence from access to Twitter Echo Chambers during the 2019 Argentine Presidential Debate," NBER Working Papers 29458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. David M. Cutler & Edward L. Glaeser, 2021. "When Innovation Goes Wrong: Technological Regress and the Opioid Epidemic," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 171-196, Fall.
    19. Seth J. Hill & Chris Tausanovitch, 2018. "Southern realignment, party sorting, and the polarization of American primary electorates, 1958–2012," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 107-132, July.
    20. David M. Cutler & Edward L. Glaeser, 2021. "When Innovation Goes Wrong: Technological Regress and the Opioid Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 28873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2014. "Resolving Debt Overhang: Political Constraints in the Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, April.
    22. Dani Rodrik, 2021. "Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 133-170, August.
    23. Thomas C. Buchmueller & Colleen Carey, 2018. "The Effect of Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs on Opioid Utilization in Medicare," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 77-112, February.
    24. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    25. Kristian S. Blickle, 2020. "Pandemics Change Cities: Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism in Germany, 1918-1933," Staff Reports 921, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    26. Dhaval Dave & Monica Deza & Brady Horn, 2021. "Prescription drug monitoring programs, opioid abuse, and crime," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(3), pages 808-848, January.
    27. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro & Matt Taddy, 2019. "Measuring Group Differences in High‐Dimensional Choices: Method and Application to Congressional Speech," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1307-1340, July.
    28. de Bromhead, Alan & Eichengreen, Barry & O'Rourke, Kevin H., 2013. "Political Extremism in the 1920s and 1930s: Do German Lessons Generalize?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 371-406, June.
    29. Eric Brunner & Stephen L. Ross & Ebonya Washington, 2011. "Economics and Policy Preferences: Causal Evidence of the Impact of Economic Conditions on Support for Redistribution and Other Ballot Proposals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 888-906, August.
    30. Azzimonti, Marina & Fernandes, Marcos, 2023. "Social media networks, fake news, and polarization," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cohle, Zachary & Ortega, Alberto, 2023. "The effect of the opioid crisis on patenting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 493-521.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    2. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile Internet and the Rise of Political Tribalism in Europe," Working Papers 941, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José‐Luis Peydró & Hans‐Joachim Voth, 2022. "Financial Crises and Political Radicalization: How Failing Banks Paved Hitler's Path to Power," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3339-3372, December.
    4. Amy Finkelstein & Matthew Gentzkow & Dean Li & Heidi L. Williams, 2022. "What Drives Risky Prescription Opioid Use? Evidence from Migration," NBER Working Papers 30471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    6. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José-Luis Peydró & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2018. "From finance to fascism," Economics Working Papers 1651, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2020.
    7. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Justine Mallatt & Christopher J. Ruhm & Kosali Simon, 2022. "The Opioid Crisis, Health, Healthcare, and Crime: A Review of Quasi-Experimental Economic Studies," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 703(1), pages 15-49, September.
    8. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile internet and the rise of political tribalism in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp1877, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile Internet and the Rise of Communitarian Politics," CESifo Working Paper Series 9955, CESifo.
    10. Manacorda, Marco & Tabellini, Guido & Tesei, Andrea, 2022. "Mobile internet and the rise of political tribalism in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118001, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Cerqua, A. & Ferrante, C. & Letta, M., 2021. "Electoral Earthquake: Natural Disasters and the Geography of Discontent," GLO Discussion Paper Series 790, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.
    13. Voth, Hans-Joachim & Doerr, Sebastian & Gissler, Stefan & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Financial crises and political radicalization: How failing banks paved Hitler's path to power," CEPR Discussion Papers 12806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Carolina Arteaga Cabrales & Victoria Barone, 2021. "The Opioid Epidemic: Causes and Consequences," Working Papers tecipa-698, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    15. Cerqua, Augusto & Ferrante, Chiara & Letta, Marco, 2023. "Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    16. Hassan Afrouzi & Carolina Arteaga & Emily Weisburst, 2022. "Can Leaders Persuade? Examining Movement in Immigration Beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9593, CESifo.
    17. Deiana Claudio & Giua Ludovica, 2021. "The Intended and Unintended Effects of Opioid Policies on Prescription Opioids and Crime," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 751-792, April.
    18. Angus Deaton, 2022. "The great divide: education, despair, and death," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 161-168, October.
    19. Campos, Nauro F. & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2023. "Structural reforms and economic performance: the experience of advanced economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120870, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Dorn, Florian & Fuest, Clemens & Immel, Lea & Neumeier, Florian, 2018. "Inequality and Extremist Voting: Evidence from Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181598, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Opioids; Mortality; Voting; Polarization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-765. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePEc Maintainer (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.