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When Innovation Goes Wrong: Technological Regress and the Opioid Epidemic

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  • David M. Cutler
  • Edward L. Glaeser

Abstract

The fourfold increase in opioid deaths between 2000 and 2017 rivals even the COVID-19 pandemic as a health crisis for America. Why did it happen? Measures of demand for pain relief – physical pain and despair – are high and in many cases rising, but their increase was nowhere near as large as the increase in deaths. The primary shift is in supply, primarily of new forms of allegedly safer narcotics. These new pain relievers flowed in greater volume to areas with more physical pain and mental health impairment, but since their apparent safety was an illusion, opioid deaths followed. By the end of the 2000s, restrictions on legal opioids led to further supply-side innovations which created the burgeoning illegal market that accounts for the bulk of opioid deaths today. Because opioid use is easier to start than end, America’s opioid epidemic is likely to persist for some time.

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Cutler & Edward L. Glaeser, 2021. "When Innovation Goes Wrong: Technological Regress and the Opioid Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 28873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28873
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David M. Cutler & J. Travis Donahoe, 2024. "Thick Market Externalities and the Persistence of the Opioid Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 32055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen Kopecky, 2024. "The Role of Friends in the Opioid Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 32032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2022. "The Downward Spiral," NBER Working Papers 29764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Amy Finkelstein & Matthew Gentzkow & Dean Li & Heidi L. Williams, 2022. "What Drives Risky Prescription Opioid Use? Evidence from Migration," NBER Working Papers 30471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Blanchflower, David G. & Bryson, Alex, 2023. "Were COVID and the Great Recession Well-Being Reducing?," IZA Discussion Papers 16355, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Angus Deaton, 2022. "The great divide: education, despair, and death," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 161-168, October.
    7. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2022. "Substance Abuse during the Pandemic: Implications for Labor-Force Participation," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 35, Economie d'Avant Garde.
    8. Carolina Arteaga & Victoria Barone, 2023. "Democracy and The Opioid Epidemic," Working Papers tecipa-765, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    9. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2022. "Did Substance Abuse during the Pandemic Reduce Labor Force Participation?," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2022(5), May.
    10. Sumit Agarwal & Wenli Li & Raluca Roman & Nonna Sorokina, 2023. "The Opioid Epidemic and Consumer Credit Supply: Evidence from Credit Cards," Working Papers 23-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Casey B. Mulligan, 2022. "Lethal Unemployment Bonuses? Substitution and Income Effects on Substance Abuse, 2020-21," NBER Working Papers 29719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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