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Pains, Guns and Moves: The Effect of the US Opioid Epidemic on Mexican Migration

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  • Gianmarco Daniele
  • Marco Le Moglie
  • Federico Masera

Abstract

The opioid epidemic and migration along the US–Mexico border are two of the most-debated policy issues in recent US politics. We show how these two topics are interlinked: the US opioid epidemic generated large Mexican migration flows. We exploit the fact that in 2010, a series of reforms to the US health care system resulted in a shift in demand from legal opiates to heroin. This demand shock had considerable effects on Mexico, the main supplier of heroin consumed in the US. Violence and conflicts increased in Mexican municipalities suitable for opium production, as they became highly valuable to drug cartels. People migrated out of these municipalities to escape this violence, mostly to areas close to the US border and into the US. The rise in US demand for heroin increased internal migration by an estimated 90,000 individuals and migration across the border at least by 12,000.

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  • Gianmarco Daniele & Marco Le Moglie & Federico Masera, 2020. "Pains, Guns and Moves: The Effect of the US Opioid Epidemic on Mexican Migration," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20141, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp20141
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    2. Paolo Buonanno & Irene Ferrari & Alessandro Saia, 2023. "ALL IS NOT LOST: Organized Crime and Social Capital Formation," Working Papers 2023: 16, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2024.
    3. Giacomo Battiston & Gianmarco Daniele & Marco Le Moglie & Paolo Pinotti, 2022. "Fueling Organized Crime: The Mexican War on Drugs and Oil Thefts," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0286, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
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    5. Anna Laura Baraldi & Erasmo Pagani & Marco Stimolo, 2022. "Neutralizing the Tentacles of Organized Crime. Assessment of an Anti-Crime Measure in Fighting Mafia Violence," Working Papers 2022.18, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

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    Keywords

    opioid crisis; migration; violence; organized crime; Mexico;
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