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Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer

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  • Bo E. Honoré
  • Adriana Lleras-Muney
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    Abstract

    In 1971, President Nixon declared war on cancer. Thirty years later, many declared this war a failure: the age-adjusted mortality rate from cancer in 2000 was essentially the same as in the early 1970s. Meanwhile the age-adjusted mortality rate from cardiovascular disease fell dramatically. Since the causes that underlie cancer and cardiovascular disease are likely dependent, the decline in mortality rates from cardiovascular disease may partially explain the lack of progress in cancer mortality. Because competing risks models (used to model mortality from multiple causes) are fundamentally unidentified, it is difficult to estimate cancer trends. We derive bounds for aspects of the underlying distributions without assuming that the underlying risks are independent. We then estimate changes in cancer and cardiovascular mortality since 1970. The bounds for the change in duration until death for either cause are fairly tight and suggest much larger improvements in cancer than previously estimated. Copyright The Econometric Society 2006.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00722.x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

    Volume (Year): 74 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 6 (November)
    Pages: 1675-1698

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    Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:74:y:2006:i:6:p:1675-1698

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    Cited by:
    1. Lakdawalla, Darius N. & Sun, Eric C. & Jena, Anupam B. & Reyes, Carolina M. & Goldman, Dana P. & Philipson, Tomas J., 2010. "An economic evaluation of the war on cancer," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 333-346, May.
    2. Horny, G. & Picchio, M., 2009. "Identification of lagged duration dependence in multiple-spell competing risks models," Working papers 260, Banque de France.
    3. Komarova, Tatiana, 2013. "Binary choice models with discrete regressors: Identification and misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 14-33.
    4. Fan, Yanqin & Park, Sang Soo, 2012. "Confidence intervals for the quantile of treatment effects in randomized experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 330-344.
    5. Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Haberman, Steven & Kaishev, Vladimir K., 2013. "Dependent competing risks: Cause elimination and its impact on survival," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 464-477.
    6. Khan, Shakeeb & Tamer, Elie, 2009. "Inference on endogenously censored regression models using conditional moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 104-119, October.
    7. Wilke, Ralf A. & Lo, Simon M. S. & Arntz, Melanie, 2007. "Bounds Analysis of Competing Risks: A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Imigration in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-049, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. Molinari, Francesca, 2005. "Partial Identification of Probability Distributions with Misclassified Data," Working Papers 05-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    9. Jason R. Blevins, 2013. "Non-Standard Rates of Convergence of Criterion-Function-Based Set Estimators," Working Papers 13-02, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Shakeeb Khan & Maria Ponomareva & Elie Tamer, 2011. "Identification of Panel Data Models with Endogenous Censoring," Working Papers 11-07, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    11. Van Bui & Michael Stolpe, 2010. "The impact of new drug launches on the loss of labor from disease and injury: evidence from German panel data," International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 315-346, December.
    12. Gabriel Picone & Arseniy Yashkin & Thomas Mroz & Frank Sloan, 2013. "Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability," Working Papers 0213, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    13. Palme, Mårten & Sandgren, Sofia, 2007. "Parental Income, Lifetime Income and Mortality," Research Papers in Economics 2007:4, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.

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