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From finance to fascism: The real effect of Germany's 1931 banking crisis

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  • Doerr, Sebastian
  • Gissler, Stefan
  • Peydró, José-Luis
  • Voth, Hans-Joachim

Abstract

Do financial crises radicalize voters? We analyze a canonical case - Germany during the Great Depression. After a severe banking crisis in 1931, caused by foreign shocks and political inaction, radical voting increased sharply in the following year. Democracy collapsed six months later. We collect new data on pre-crisis bank-firm connections and show that banking distress led to markedly more radical voting, both through economic and non-economic channels. Firms linked to two large banks that failed experienced a bank-driven fall in lending, which caused reductions in their wage bill and a fall in city-level incomes. This in turn increased Nazi Party support between 1930 and 1932/33, especially in cities with a history of anti-Semitism. While both failing banks had a large negative economic impact, only exposure to the bank led by a Jewish chairman strongly predicts Nazi voting. Local exposure to the banking crisis simultaneously led to a decline in Jewish-gentile marriages and is associated with more deportations and attacks on synagogues after 1933.

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  • Doerr, Sebastian & Gissler, Stefan & Peydró, José-Luis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2019. "From finance to fascism: The real effect of Germany's 1931 banking crisis," IBF Paper Series 01-19, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ibfpps:0119
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    2. Orkun Saka & Yuemei Ji & Paul De Grauwe, 2021. "Financial Policymaking after Crises: Public vs. Private Interests," CESifo Working Paper Series 9131, CESifo.
    3. Kristian Blickle & Markus Brunnermeier & Stephan Luck, 2020. "Micro-evidence from a System-wide Financial Meltdown: The German Crisis of 1931," Working Papers 275, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    4. Quoc-Anh Do & Roberto Galbiati & Benjamin Marx & Miguel Ortiz Serrano, 2020. "J'Accuse! Antisemitism and Financial Markets in the Time of the Dreyfus Affair," Sciences Po publications 2020-08, Sciences Po.
    5. Adam, Marc C. & Jansson, Walter, 2019. "Credit constraints and the propagation of the Great Depression in Germany," Discussion Papers 2019/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. García-Uribe, Sandra & Mueller, Hannes & Sanz, Carlos, 2024. "Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the dos Españas," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(1), pages 40-73, March.
    7. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Saka, Orkun & Ji, Yuemei & De Grauwe, Paul, 2021. "Financial policymaking after crises : Public vs. private interests," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Abuka, Charles & Alinda, Ronnie K. & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2019. "Monetary policy and bank lending in developing countries: Loan applications, rates, and real effects," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 185-202.
    10. Benczes, István & Szabó, Krisztina, 2023. "Társadalmi törésvonalak és gazdasági (ir)racionalitások. A közgazdaságtan szerepe és helye a populizmus kutatásában [Social cleavages and economic (ir)rationalities: The role of economics in populi," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 23-54.
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5stdfj99hg96f8n537oi1mkfo9 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mueller, Hannes & Garcia-Uribe, Sandra & Sanz, Carlos, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"," CEPR Discussion Papers 15479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Gregori Galofre-Vila, 2021. "The Costs of Hyperinflation: Germany 1923," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 2101, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    14. Berggren, Niclas & Nilsson, Therese, 2021. "Economic freedom and antisemitism," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 289-304, April.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5stdfj99hg96f8n537oi1mkfo9 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kristian S. Blickle, 2020. "Pandemics Change Cities: Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism in Germany, 1918-1933," Staff Reports 921, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Quoc-Anh Do & Roberto Galbiati & Benjamin Marx & Miguel a Ortiz Serrano, 2020. "J’Accuse! Antisemitism and Financial Markets in the time of the Dreyfus Affair," Working Papers hal-02957438, HAL.
    18. Győző Gyöngyösi & Emil Verner, 2022. "Financial Crisis, Creditor‐Debtor Conflict, and Populism," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2471-2523, August.
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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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