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Analyzing Energy Consumption and GDP Nexus Using Maximum Entropy Bootstrap: The Case of Turkey

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  • A. Talha Yalta

Abstract

We employ a maximum entropy bootstrap based framework to analyze the energy consumption and real GDP nexus between 1950 and 2006 in Turkey. Our approach provides more accurate inference in comparison to conventional hypothesis tests based on asymptotic theory. It also avoids preliminary testing and shape-destroying transformations such as differencing and detrending. The bivariate analysis as well as a multivariate framework controlling for exchange rate and oil prices shows no evidence of a causal relation. Our results are robust to both the number of lags and the time period chosen. We also perform a cointegration analysis of the data and point out a common misunderstanding in the literature regarding the concept of causation.

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Paper provided by TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1103.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:tob:wpaper:1103

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  1. Davidson, R. & Mackinnon, J.G., 1996. "The Size Distorsion of Bootstrap Tests," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a15, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
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  3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
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  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  8. Karanfil, Fatih, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth revisited: Does the size of unrecorded economy matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3019-3025, August.
  9. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2004. "Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 985-994, November.
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  11. James G. MacKinnon, 2007. "Bootstrap Hypothesis Testing," Working Papers 1127, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  12. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2005. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 849-856, November.
  13. Hrishikesh D. Vinod, 2010. "A New Solution to Time Series Inference in Spurious Regression Problems," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2010-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  14. Hrishikesh D. Vinod & Javier Lopez-de-Lacalle, . "Maximum Entropy Bootstrap for Time Series: The meboot R Package," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(i05).
  15. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
  16. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2003. "Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 33-37, January.
  17. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
  18. Karanfil, Fatih, 2009. "How many times again will we examine the energy-income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1191-1194, April.
  19. Vinod, H. D., 2004. "Ranking mutual funds using unconventional utility theory and stochastic dominance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 353-377, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Talha Yalta, A. & Cakar, Hatice, 2012. "Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A reconciliation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 666-675.
  2. A. Talha Yalta, 2013. "Small Sample Bootstrap Inference of Level Relationships in the Presence of Autocorrelated Errors: A Large Scale Simulation Study and an Application in Energy Demand," Working Papers 1301, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  3. A. Yasemin Yalta, 2011. "New Evidence on FDI-Led Growth: The Case of China," Working Papers 1107, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  4. Rohin Anhal, 2013. "Causality between GDP, Energy and Coal Consumption in India, 1970-2011: A Non-parametric Bootstrap Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 434 - 446.
  5. A. Talha Yalta, 2013. "The Dynamics of Road Energy Demand and Illegal Fuel Activity in Turkey: A Rolling Window Analysis," Working Papers 1304, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2013.

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