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Knightian Uncertainty, k-Ignorance, and Optimal Timing

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  • Luis H. R. Alvarez

    (Department of Economics, Turku School of Economics)

Abstract

We investigate within a continuous time setting how Knightian uncertainty characterized by k-ignorance affects the optimal timing policies of a risk-neutral and uncertainty averse investor in the case where the exercise payoff is monotonic. We prove that increased Knightian uncertainty unambiguously decreases the value of the optimal timing policy of an uncertainty averse investor. We also show that higher Knightian uncertainty accelerates timing by shrinking the continuation region whenever the termination payoff is independent of Knightian uncertainty. If this independence condition is not fulfilled, then our results indicate that higher Knightian uncertainty may decelerate optimal timing.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis H. R. Alvarez, 2007. "Knightian Uncertainty, k-Ignorance, and Optimal Timing," Discussion Papers 25, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp25
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    File URL: http://www.ace-economics.fi/kuvat/dp025.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Ozaki, Hiroyuki, 2007. "Irreversible investment and Knightian uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 668-694, September.
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    8. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
    9. Alvarez, Luis H. R., 1998. "Exit strategies and price uncertainty: a Greenian approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 43-56, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Soren Christensen & Luis H. R. Alvarez E, 2019. "A Solvable Two-dimensional Optimal Stopping Problem in the Presence of Ambiguity," Papers 1905.05429, arXiv.org.
    2. Luis H. R. Alvarez E. & Soren Christensen, 2019. "The Impact of Ambiguity on the Optimal Exercise Timing of Integral Option Contracts," Papers 1906.07533, arXiv.org.
    3. Luis H. R. Alvarez E. & Soren Christensen, 2019. "A Class of Solvable Multidimensional Stopping Problems in the Presence of Knightian Uncertainty," Papers 1907.04046, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Knightian uncertainty; k-ambiguity; optimal stopping; diffusions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing

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