Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Behavioral Characterization of Plausible Priors

Contents:

Author Info

  • Marciano Siniscalchi

Abstract

Recent theories of choice under uncertainty represent ambiguity via multiple priors, informally interpreted as alternative probabilistic models of the uncertainty that the decision-maker considers equally plausible. This paper provides a robust behavioral foundation for this interpretation. A prior P is deemed “plausible” if (i) preferences over a subset C of acts are consistent with subjective expected utility (SEU), and (ii) jointly with an appropriate utility function, P provides the unique SEU representation of preferences over C. Under appropriate axioms, plausible priors can be elicited from preferences; moreover, if these axioms hold, (i) preferences are probabilistically sophisticated if and only if they are SEU, and (ii) under suitable consequentialism and dynamic consistency axioms, “plausible posteriors” can be derived from plausible priors via Bayes’ rule. Several well-known decision models are consistent with the axioms proposed here.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~msi661/PriorsMT.pdf
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science in its series Discussion Papers with number 1365.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nwu:cmsems:1365

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science, Northwestern University, 580 Jacobs Center, 2001 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208-2014
Phone: 847/491-3527
Fax: 847/491-2530
Email:
Web page: http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/math/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
  2. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00174553 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Castagnoli, Erio & Maccheroni, Fabio, 2000. "Restricting independence to convex cones," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 215-223, October.
  4. Machina Mark J. & Schmeidler David, 1995. "Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 106-128, October.
  5. Billot, A. & Chateauneuf, A. & Gilboa, I. & Tallon, J.-M., 1998. "Sharing Beliefs: Between Agreeing and Disagreeing," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 98.30, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  6. Truman F. Bewley, 1986. "Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 2001. "A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels," Working Papers 1127, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  8. Jaffray, J.Y., 1992. "Dynamic Decision Making with Belief Functions," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92-15, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  9. Cesaltina Pacheco Pires, 2002. "A Rule For Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 137-152, September.
  10. Larry G. Epstein & Jiankang Zhang, 1999. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events," Carleton Economic Papers 99-18, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  11. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1991. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Discussion Papers 924, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  12. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  13. Machina, Mark J, 2002. "Robustifying the Classical Model of Risk Preferences and Beliefs," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1xt4c2qb, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  14. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity from the Differential Viewpoint," Working Papers 1130, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  15. Marciano Siniscalchi, 2001. "Bayesian Updating for General Maxmin Expected Utility Preferences," Discussion Papers 1366, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  16. Mukerji, Sujoy, 1998. "Ambiguity Aversion and Incompleteness of Contractual Form," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1207-31, December.
  17. Ghirardato, Paolo & Klibanoff, Peter & Marinacci, Massimo, 1998. "Additivity with multiple priors," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 405-420, November.
  18. Machina,Mark & Schmeidler,David, 1991. "A more robust definition of subjective probability," Discussion Paper Serie A 365, University of Bonn, Germany.
  19. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  20. Marciano Siniscalchi, . "Vector-Adjusted Expected Utility," Working Papers 191, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  21. Peter Klibanoff, 2001. "Characterizing uncertainty aversion through preference for mixtures," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 289-301.
  22. Lars Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Thomas Tallarini, . "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," GSIA Working Papers 1997-51, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  23. Epstein, L.G. & Zhang, J., 1998. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectivity Unambiguous Event," RCER Working Papers 456, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  24. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Tigran Melkonyan & Mark Pingle, 2010. "Ambiguity, pessimism, and rational religious choice," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 417-438, September.
  2. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2004. "Investment Behavior under Ambiguity: The Case of Pessimistic Decision Makers," MEA discussion paper series 04060, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  3. Marciano Siniscalchi, 2006. "Dynamic Choice Under Ambiguity," Discussion Papers 1430, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Amit Kothiyal & Vitalie Spinu & Peter Wakker, 2014. "An experimental test of prospect theory for predicting choice under ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-17, February.
  5. Melkonyan, Tigran A., 2011. "The Effect of Communicating Ambiguous Risk Information on Choice," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(2), August.
  6. Scott Condie & Jayant Ganguli, 2011. "Informational efficiency with ambiguous information," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 229-242, October.
  7. Martin Dumav & Maxwell B. Stinchcombe, 2013. "The von Neumann/Morgenstern approach to ambiguity," Working Papers 480, Bielefeld University, Center for Mathematical Economics.
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Maenhout, Pascal & Rustichini, Aldo & Sargent, Thomas J. & Siniscalchi, Marciano M., 2006. "Introduction to model uncertainty and robustness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 1-3, May.
  9. Rigotti, Luca & Shannon, Chris, 2012. "Sharing risk and ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(5), pages 2028-2039.
  10. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Bernoulli Without Bayes: A Theory of Utility-Sophisticated Preferences under Ambiguity," Economics Working Papers 0072, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
  11. Marciano Siniscalchi, 2009. "Vector Expected Utility and Attitudes Toward Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 801-855, 05.
  12. Tigran Melkonyan & Mark Pingle, 2008. "Ambiguity, Pessimism, and Religious Choice," Working Papers 08-002, University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics & University of Nevada, Reno , Department of Resource Economics.
  13. Ehud Lehrer & Roee Teper, 2014. "Extension Rules or What Would the Sage Do?," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 5-22, February.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nwu:cmsems:1365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fran Walker).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.