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Testing for Stock Market Contagion: A Quantile Regression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sungyong Park

    (Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea)

  • Wendun Wang

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Naijing Huang

    (Boston College, United States)

Abstract

Regarding the asymmetric and leptokurtic behavior of financial data, we propose a new contagion test in the quantile regression framework that is robust to model misspecification. Unlike conventional correlation-based tests, the proposed quantile contagion test allows us to investigate the stock market contagion at various quantiles, not only at the mean. We show that the quantile contagion test can detect a contagion effect that is possibly ignored by correlation-based tests. A wide range of simulation studies show that the proposed test is superior to the correlation-based tests in terms of size and power. We compare our test with correlation-based tests using three real data sets: the 1994 Tequila crisis, the 1997 Asia crisis, and the 2001 Argentina crisis. Empirical results show substantial differences between two types of tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Sungyong Park & Wendun Wang & Naijing Huang, 2015. "Testing for Stock Market Contagion: A Quantile Regression Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-040/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lien, Donald & Lee, Geul & Yang, Li & Zhang, Yuyin, 2018. "Volatility spillovers among the U.S. and Asian stock markets: A comparison between the periods of Asian currency crisis and subprime credit crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 187-201.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial contagion; Quantile regression; One-sided score test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets

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