Specification Tests of Calibrated Option Pricing Models
AbstractIn spite of the popularity of model calibration in finance, empirical researchers have put more emphasis on model estimation than on the equally important goodness-of-fit problem. This is due partly to the ignorance of modelers, and more to the ability of existing statistical tests to detect specification errors. In practice, models are often calibrated by minimizing the sum of squared difference between the modelled and actual observations. It is challenging to disentangle model error from estimation error in the residual series. To circumvent the difficulty, we study an alternative way of estimating the model by exact calibration. We argue that standard time series tests based on the exact approach can better reveal model misspecifications than the error minimizing approach. In the context of option pricing, we illustrate the usefulness of exact calibration in detecting model misspecification. Under heteroskedastic observation error structure, our simulation results shows that the Black-Scholes model calibrated by exact approach delivers more accurate hedging performance than that calibrated by error minimization.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Sydney, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2013-08.
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hong, Yongmiao & Lee, Yoon-Jin, 2007. "An Improved Generalized Spectral Test For Conditional Mean Models In Time Series With Conditional Heteroskedasticity Of Unknown Form," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(01), pages 106-154, February.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
- Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
- Douglas Rivers & Quang Vuong, 2002. "Model selection tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, June.
- Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
- Yongmiao Hong & Yoon-Jin Lee, 2005. "Generalized Spectral Tests for Conditional Mean Models in Time Series with Conditional Heteroscedasticity of Unknown Form," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 499-541.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vanessa Holcombe).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.