IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/stm/wpaper/57.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fear (no more) of Floating: Asset Purchases and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Yasin Mimir

Abstract

We provide a theory on currency dynamics, capital flows and conditions for emerging market economy central bank asset purchases to leave room for manoeuvre for conventional monetary policy. Local-currency asset purchases ease financial conditions and boost banks’ foreign borrowing capacity. Therefore, they curb the financial amplification of government bond sell-off shocks by mitigating private sector capital outflows and the accompanying exchange rate depreciation. The resulting limited rise in inflation reduces the pro-cyclicality of conventional monetary policy. Our framework sheds light on stable exchange rate dynamics observed after the unprecedented asset purchase announcements in emerging-market economies during the COVID-19 crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasin Mimir, 2023. "Fear (no more) of Floating: Asset Purchases and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working Papers 57, European Stability Mechanism.
    • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esm.europa.eu/system/files/document/2023-05/ESM%20WP%2057_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    3. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    4. Ms. Hélène Poirson, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries," IMF Working Papers 2021/014, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    8. Kolasa, Marcin & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2020. "International spillovers of quantitative easing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
    10. Ryan Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2022. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 296-312, December.
    11. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2021. "Does a big bazooka matter? Quantitative easing policies and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 489-506.
    12. V. V. Chari & Alessandro Dovis & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2020. "On the Optimality of Financial Repression," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(2), pages 710-739.
    13. Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Financial crises and exchange rate policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 202-215.
    14. Alessandro Rebucci & Jonathan S. Hartley & Daniel Jiménez, 2022. "An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 291-322, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    15. Ellison, Martin & Tischbirek, Andreas, 2014. "Unconventional government debt purchases as a supplement to conventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 199-217.
    16. Luigi Bocola, 2016. "The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 879-926.
    17. Tito Cordella & Pablo M. Federico & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2014. "Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 17584, December.
    18. Jonathan Kearns & Nikhil Patel, 2016. "Does the financial channel of exchange rates offset the trade channel?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    19. Sami Alpanda & Serdar Kabaca, 2020. "International Spillovers of Large-Scale Asset Purchases," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 342-391.
    20. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2014/039, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Yavuz Arslan & Mathias Drehmann & Boris Hofmann, 2020. "Central bank bond purchases in emerging market economies," BIS Bulletins 20, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mitsuru Katagiri & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Do Term Premiums Matter? Transmission via Exchange Rate Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    2. Michael Kühl, 2018. "The Effects of Government Bond Purchases on Leverage Constraints of Banks and Non-Financial Firms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 93-161, September.
    3. Francesco Molteni, 2015. "Liquidity, Government Bonds and Sovereign Debt Crises," Working Papers 2015-32, CEPII research center.
    4. Christophe Cahn & Julien Matheron & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2017. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of LTROs during the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1443-1482, October.
    5. Akıncı, Özge & Chahrour, Ryan, 2018. "Good news is bad news: Leverage cycles and sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 362-375.
    6. Inhwan So, 2017. "Bank Globalization and Monetary Policy Transmission in Small Open Economies," Working Papers 2017-33, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    7. Boris Hofmann & Nikhil Patel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2022. "Original sin redux: a model-based evaluation," BIS Working Papers 1004, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2018. "How costly is a misspecified credit channel DSGE model in monetary policymaking?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 484-505.
    9. Fuentes H., Fernando & García, Carlos J., 2016. "The business cycle and copper mining in Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gelfer, Sacha & Gibbs, Christopher G., 2023. "Measuring the effects of large-scale asset purchases: The role of international financial markets and the financial accelerator," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Ma, Xiaofei, 2018. "Banks, sovereign risk and unconventional monetary policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 153-171.
    13. Gregor Boehl & Gavin Goy & Felix Strobel, 2020. "A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_193, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    14. Economides, George & Papageorgiou, Dmitris & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2020. "Macroeconomic policy lessons from Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107155, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. George Economides & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2021. "Austerity, Assistance and Institutions: Lessons from the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 435-478, July.
    16. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks, and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 159-195, December.
    17. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos J. García & Esteban Skoknic, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of the electricity price: lessons from Chile," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2407-2428, May.
    18. Dominic Quint & Pau Rabanal, 2014. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 169-236, June.
    19. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Thomas Philippon & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "The Analytics of the Greek Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-81.
    20. Hohberger, Stefan & Priftis, Romanos & Vogel, Lukas, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    21. Anil Ari, 2015. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 202, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset purchases; exchange rate; conventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Karol SISKIND (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efseulu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.