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The Future European Natural Gas Market - are lower gas prices attainable?

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Author Info
Eirik Lund Sagen and Finn Roar Aune () (Statistics Norway)

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Abstract

We analyse effects of various natural gas supply scenarios in a liberalised Western European energy market in 2010. Our starting point is the uncertainties about future natural gas exports from Russia and LNG-producing countries. Our results indicate that the average natural gas producer price in Western Europe is likely to be higher in 2010 than the average historical price the last 15 years, even in an optimistic supply scenario. We find only modest effects on both average natural gas producer prices and trade patterns of radical changes in supply volumes. However, there are significant country specific differences, primarily related to the reliance on Russian gas exports and the use of gas fired power generation

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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 379.

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Date of creation: Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:379

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Related research
Keywords: Electricity; energy modeling; natural gas; liberalized energy markets; LNG; Russia;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply
Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply

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  1. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1998. "Increased Competition on the Supply Side of the Western European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 19(3), pages 1-18.
  2. Aune,F.R. & Golombek,R. & Kittelsen,S.A.C. & ..., 2001. "Liberalising the energy markets of Western Europe : a computable equilibrium model approach," Memorandum 14/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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