The Future European Natural Gas Market - are lower gas prices attainable?
AbstractWe analyse effects of various natural gas supply scenarios in a liberalised Western European energy market in 2010. Our starting point is the uncertainties about future natural gas exports from Russia and LNG-producing countries. Our results indicate that the average natural gas producer price in Western Europe is likely to be higher in 2010 than the average historical price the last 15 years, even in an optimistic supply scenario. We find only modest effects on both average natural gas producer prices and trade patterns of radical changes in supply volumes. However, there are significant country specific differences, primarily related to the reliance on Russian gas exports and the use of gas fired power generation
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 379.
Date of creation: Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Electricity; energy modeling; natural gas; liberalized energy markets; LNG; Russia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-11-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2004-11-22 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-EEC-2004-11-22 (European Economics)
- NEP-MIC-2004-11-22 (Microeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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11/1996, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
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