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The Future European Natural Gas Market - are lower gas prices attainable?

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Abstract

We analyse effects of various natural gas supply scenarios in a liberalised Western European energy market in 2010. Our starting point is the uncertainties about future natural gas exports from Russia and LNG-producing countries. Our results indicate that the average natural gas producer price in Western Europe is likely to be higher in 2010 than the average historical price the last 15 years, even in an optimistic supply scenario. We find only modest effects on both average natural gas producer prices and trade patterns of radical changes in supply volumes. However, there are significant country specific differences, primarily related to the reliance on Russian gas exports and the use of gas fired power generation

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  • Eirik Lund Sagen & Finn Roar Aune, 2004. "The Future European Natural Gas Market - are lower gas prices attainable?," Discussion Papers 379, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:379
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    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp379.pdf
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    1. Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek & Sverre Kittelsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2004. "Liberalizing the energy markets of Western Europe - a computable equilibrium model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2137-2149.
    2. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1998. "Increased Competition on the Supply Side of the Western European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-18.
    3. Mads Greaker & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2004. "Explaining experience curves for LNG liquefaction costs: Competition matter more than learning," Discussion Papers 393, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
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    1. Gasmi, Farid & Oviedo, Juan Daniel, 2010. "Investment in transport infrastructure, regulation, and gas-gas competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 726-736, May.
    2. Gasmi, Farid & Oviedo, Juan Daniel, 2009. "Investment in Transport Infrastructure, and Gas-Gas Competition," TSE Working Papers 09-121, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity; energy modeling; natural gas; liberalized energy markets; LNG; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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