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Explaining experience curves for LNG liquefaction costs: Competition matter more than learning

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Abstract

In this paper we seek to identify different driving forces behind the fall in LNG liquefaction unit costs. Our focus is on organizational learning including process specific R&D, but we also seek to account for autonomous technological change, scale effects and the effects of upstream competition among liquefaction technology suppliers. To our surprise we find that upstream competition is by far the most important factor. This may have implications for the future development in costs as the effect of increased upstream competition is temporary and likely to weaken a lot sooner than effects from learning and technological change. On the other hand, the increased competition could also spur more innovation, and induce a new drop in future unit costs.

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File URL: http://www.ssb.no/publikasjoner/DP/pdf/dp393.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 393.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:393

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Keywords: Learning curves; Mark-up pricing; LNG costs;

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  1. Ole Olesen & N. Petersen, 2003. "Introduction," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 237-241, November.
  2. Marvin B. Lieberman, 1984. "The Learning Curve and Pricing in the Chemical Processing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(2), pages 213-228, Summer.
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Cited by:
  1. Fontini, Fulvio & Paloscia, Lorenzo, 2007. "The impact of the new investments in combined cycle gas turbine power plants on the Italian electricity price," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4671-4676, September.
  2. Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-40.

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