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Demand and Technology Determinants of Structural Change and Tertiarisation: An Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis for four OECD Countries

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Maria Savona
André Lorentz

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Abstract

The paper provides fresh empirical evidence on the relative role of changes in final and intermediate demand as affecting the changes in the sectoral structure of advanced economies. These latter have led, over the last three decades, to the massive growth of service sectors. The paper draws upon the recently released OECD Input-Output (I-O) tables. The empirical analysis is based on an I-O Structural Decomposition Analysis carried out on 13 manufacturing and service sectors, from the end of 1960s to the end of 1990s. Although heterogeneous sectoral patterns emerge, we find that the structural changes leading to the growth of services, particularly KIBS (Knowl-edge Intensive Business Services), are mainly (domestic) demand-led, whereas the role of foreign trade remains marginal even in the last decade. We infer that, even in the case of the most technologically advanced service sectors, (domestic) demand constraints affect the degree of exploitation of technological opportunities and the patterns of growth.

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Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2005/25.

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Date of creation: 11 Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/25

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Keywords: Structural change Growth of Services Input–Output Structural Decomposition Analysis

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  1. Korres, George M, 1996. "Sources of Structural Change: An Input-Output Decomposition Analysis for Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(11), pages 707-10, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Montobbio, Fabio, 2002. "An evolutionary model of industrial growth and structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-414, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rose, Adam & Casler, Stephen, 1996. "Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis: A Critical Appraisal," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 33-62, March.
  4. Verspagen, B., 2000. "Growth and structural change: trends, patterns and policy options," ECIS Working Papers 00.08, Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies, Eindhoven University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Baumol, William J & Blackman, Sue Anne Batey & Wolff, Edward N, 1985. "Unbalanced Growth Revisited: Asymptotic Stagnancy and New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 806-17, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Verspagen, B., 2002. "Structural Change and Technology. A Long View," ECIS Working Papers 02.13, Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies, Eindhoven University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  7. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Giulio Cainelli & Rinaldo Evangelista & Maria Savona, 2006. "Innovation and economic performance in services: a firm-level analysis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 435-458, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fagerberg, Jan, 2000. "Technological progress, structural change and productivity growth: a comparative study," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 393-411, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Michael Peneder & Serguei Kaniovski & Bernhard Dachs, . "What Follows Tertiarisation? Structural Change and the Role of Knowledge-based Services," WIFO Working Papers 146, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  11. Fagerberg, Jan, 1994. "Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1147-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bart Verspagen, . "Evolutionary macroeconomics: A synthesis between neo-Schumpeterian and post-Keynesian lines of thought," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV. [Downloadable!]
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