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Industry Dynamics and the Distribution of Firm Sizes: A Non-Parametric Approach

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  • Francesca Lotti
  • Enrico Santarelli

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the evolution of the size distribution of young firms within some selected industries, trying to assess the empirical implications of different models of industry dynamics: the model of passive learning (Jovanovic 1982), the model of active learning (Ericson and Pakes, 1995), and the evolutionary model (Audretsch, 1995). We use a non-parametric technique, the Kernel density estimator, applied to a data set from the Italian National Institute for Social Security (INPS), consisting in 12 cohorts of new manufacturing firms followed for 6 years. Since the patterns of convergence to the limit distribution are different between industries, we conclude that the model of passive learning is consistent with some of them, the active exploration model with others, the evolutionary model with all of them.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2001/14.

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Date of creation: 25 Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2001/14

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Keywords: Cohorts; Gibrats Law; Kernel; Industry Dynamics; Non-parametric; Shakeouts.;

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References

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  1. Cabral, Luís M B, 1997. "Entry Mistakes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Pakes, A. & Ericson, R., 1990. "Empirical Implications Of Alternative Models Of Firm Dynamics," Papers 594, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  3. Lu�s M B Cabral & Jos� Mata, 2003. "On the Evolution of the Firm Size Distribution: Facts and Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1075-1090, September.
  4. Boeri, Tito & Bellmann, Lutz, 1995. "Post-entry behaviour and the cycle: Evidence from Germany," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 483-500, December.
  5. Ijiri, Yuji & Simon, Herbert A, 1974. "Interpretations of Departures from the Pareto Curve Firm-Size Distributions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 315-31, Part I, M.
  6. Jose A. F. Machado & Jose Mata, 2000. "Box-Cox quantile regression and the distribution of firm sizes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 253-274.
  7. Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2001. "Is It Really Wise to Design Policies in Support of New Firm Formation?," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 91(4), pages 151-170, April-May.
  8. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
  9. L. A. N. Amaral & S. V. Buldyrev & S. Havlin & H. Leschhorn & P. Maass & M. A. Salinger & H. E. Stanley & M. H. R. Stanley, 1997. "Scaling behavior in economics: I. Empirical results for company growth," Papers cond-mat/9702082, arXiv.org.
  10. David B. Audretsch, 1995. "Innovation and Industry Evolution," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011468, January.
  11. Geroski, Paul A, 1999. "The Growth of Firms in Theory and in Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 2092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Peter Hart & Nicholas Oulton, 1999. "Gibrat, Galton and Job Generation," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 149-164.
  13. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  14. Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2001. "The relationship between size and growth: the case of Italian newborn firms," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 451-454.
  15. Brock, W A, 1999. "Scaling in Economics: A Reader's Guide," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 409-46, September.
  16. Klepper, Steven & Miller, John H., 1995. "Entry, exit, and shakeouts in the United States in new manufactured products," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 567-591, December.
  17. Audretsch, David B. & Santarelli, Enrico & Vivarelli, Marco, 1999. "Start-up size and industrial dynamics: some evidence from Italian manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(7), pages 965-983, October.
  18. F. Lotti & E. Santarelli & M. Vivarelli, 1999. "Does Gibrat’s Law Hold in the Case of Young, Small Firms?," Working Papers 361, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  19. Stephen Hymer & Peter Pashigian, 1962. "Firm Size and Rate of Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 556.
  20. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
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