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Gibrat's Law and Market Selection

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Author Info
Francesca Lotti
Marco Vivarelli ()
Enrico Santarelli ()

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Abstract

According to Gibrat' Law of Proportionate Effect, the growth rate of a given firm is independent of its size at the beginning of the period examined. In contrast to the previous literature on the subject, this paper seeks to test the Law by taking account of both the entry process and the role of survival/failure in reshaping a given population of firms over time. It does so by focusing on the entire population of firms (including newborn ones) in the Italian Radio, TV & Telecommunications equipment industry and tracking them over seven years. Consistently with the previous literature, it finds that - in general - Gibrat' Law is to be rejected, since smaller firms tend to grow faster than their larger counterparts. However, the paper' main finding is that this rejection of Gibrat’ Law may be due to market dynamics and selection. In other words, it is due to the entry process and the presence of transient smaler firms. Indeed, whilst it is found that Gibrat' Law has to be rejected over a seven-year period during which both incumbent and newborn firms are considered, for both sub-populations of surviving firms a convergence towards Gibrat-like behavior over time can be detected. Thus, market selection "leans" the original population of firms and the resulting industrial "ore" (mature, larger, well-established and most efficient firms) does not seem to depart from a Gibrat-like patern of growth.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Max Planck Institute of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Group in its series Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy with number 2004-28.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:esi:egpdis:2004-28

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Related research
Keywords: Gibrat' Law; manufacturing; industrial dynamics; entry; survival; selection bias;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Stephen Hymer & Peter Pashigian, 1962. "Firm Size and Rate of Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 556. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli, 2001. "Industry Dynamics and the Distribution of Firm Sizes: A Non-Parametric Approach," LEM Papers Series 2001/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2003. "Does Gibrat's Law hold among young, small firms?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lotti, Francesca & Santarelli, Enrico & Vivarelli, Marco, 2001. "The Relationship between Size and Growth: The Case of Italian Newborn Firms," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 451-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. R. Piergiovanni & E. Santarelli & L. Klomp & A.R. Thurik, 2002. "Gibrat's Law and the Firm Size / Firm Growth Relationship in Italian Services," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-080/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Heshmati, Almas, 2001. " On the Growth of Micro and Small Firms: Evidence from Sweden," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 213-28, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Barbara Roberts & Steve Thompson, 2003. "Entry and Exit in a Transition Economy: The Case of Poland," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 225-243, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Geroski, Paul A, 1999. "The Growth of Firms in Theory and in Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 2092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Chesher, Andrew, 1979. "Testing the Law of Proportionate Effect," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 403-11, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Harhoff, Dietmar & Stahl, Konrad & Woywode, Michael, 1998. "Legal Form, Growth and Exit of West German Firms--Empirical Results for Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Service Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 453-88, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Almus, Matthias & Nerlinger, Eric A, 2000. " Testing "Gibrat's Law" for Young Firms--Empirical Results for West Germany," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. John Sutton, 1997. "Gibrat's Legacy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 40-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Cabral, Luís M B, 1997. "Entry Mistakes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Pakes, Ariel & Ericson, Richard, 1998. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Klepper, Steven & Miller, John H., 1995. "Entry, exit, and shakeouts in the United States in new manufactured products," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 567-591, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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