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Reconstructing and stress testing credit networks

Author

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  • Ramadiah, Amanah
  • Caccioli, Fabio
  • Fricke, Daniel

Abstract

Financial networks are an important source of systemic risk, but often only partial network information is available. In this paper, we use data on bank-firm credit relationships in Japan and conduct a horse race between different network reconstruction methods in terms of their ability to reproduce the actual credit networks. We then compare the different reconstruction methods in terms of their implied systemic risk levels. In most instances we find that the observed credit network significantly displays the highest systemic risk level. Lastly, we explore different policies to improve the robustness of the system. JEL Classification: G11, G20, G21, G28, G32

Suggested Citation

  • Ramadiah, Amanah & Caccioli, Fabio & Fricke, Daniel, 2018. "Reconstructing and stress testing credit networks," ESRB Working Paper Series 84, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201884
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Chao & Liu, Xiaoxing & Chen, Boyi & Li, Menyu, 2023. "Topological properties of reconstructed credit networks and banking systemic risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Pang, Raymond Ka-Kay & Veraart, Luitgard A. M., 2023. "Assessing and mitigating fire sales risk under partial information," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120171, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Landaberry, Victoria & Caccioli, Fabio & Rodriguez-Martinez, Anahi & Baron, Andrea & Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin & Lluberas, Rodrigo, 2021. "The contribution of the intra-firm exposures network to systemic risk," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    4. Silvia Crafa, 2021. "From agent-based modeling to actor-based reactive systems in the analysis of financial networks," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(3), pages 649-673, July.
    5. Caccioli, Fabio & Ferrara, Gerardo & Ramadiah, Amanah, 2020. "Modelling fire sale contagion across banks and non-banks," Bank of England working papers 878, Bank of England, revised 18 Feb 2021.
    6. Siklos, Pierre L. & Stefan, Martin, 2021. "Exchange rate shocks in multicurrency interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    8. Andrea Bacilieri & Pablo Austudillo-Estevez, 2023. "Reconstructing firm-level input-output networks from partial information," Papers 2304.00081, arXiv.org.
    9. Di Gangi, Domenico & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide, 2018. "Assessing systemic risk due to fire sales spillover through maximum entropy network reconstruction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 117-141.
    10. Ramadiah, Amanah & Fricke, Daniel & Caccioli, Fabio, 2022. "Backtesting macroprudential stress tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Michel Alexandre & Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Luca Riccetti & Alberto Russo, 2023. "The financial network channel of monetary policy transmission: an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(3), pages 533-571, July.
    12. Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli, 2018. "Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems," Papers 1806.06941, arXiv.org.
    13. Pang, Raymond Ka-Kay & Veraart, Luitgard Anna Maria, 2023. "Assessing and mitigating fire sales risk under partial information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    14. Maehashi, Kohei, 2021. "Systemic risk of portfolio diversification," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregation level; bipartite credit network; network reconstruction; stress testing; systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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