IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spo/wpmain/infohdl2441-7qh1ffjmcs94eag0i47p8t150j.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Did Immigration Cause Brexit?

Author

Listed:
  • Max Viskanic

    (Sciences Po)

Abstract

Can large immigration inflows impact electoral outcomes and specifically, what impact did immigration have on the vote in favour of leaving the European Union (Brexit) in the United Kingdom? In particular, I focus on how the increase in Polish immigration, the major group of immigrants post 2004, affected votes in favour of leaving the EU. I find a percentage point increase in Polish immigration to the UK to have caused an increase in votes in favour of Brexit of about 2.72-3.12 percentage points, depending on the specification. To obtain exogenous variation in Polish immigration, I collect data from the archives that reveals the location of Polish War Resettlement Camps after Word War II, which location is plausibly exogenous to current political outcomes. Discussing potential mechanisms, I examine public opinion data in the British Election Study 2015 and find evidence of adversity towards immigration to be a root cause. Other considerations such as the National Health Service (NHS), incumbency and the general trust in politicians as well as the political institutions seem not to play a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Viskanic, 2020. "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Did Immigration Cause Brexit?," Sciences Po publications 100, Sciences Po.
    • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7qh1ffjmcs94eag0i47p8t150j
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/7qh1ffjmcs94eag0i47p8t150j/resources/wp-100-max-viskanic.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Vertier & Max Viskanic, 2018. "Dismantling the "Jungle": Migrant Relocation and Extreme Voting in France," CESifo Working Paper Series 6927, CESifo.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    3. Stephen Nickell & Jumana Saleheen, 2008. "The impact of immigration on occupational wages: evidence from Britain," Working Papers 08-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    5. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    6. Brunner, Beatrice & Kuhn, Andreas, 2014. "Immigration, Cultural Distance and Natives' Attitudes Towards Immigrants: Evidence from Swiss Voting Results," IZA Discussion Papers 8409, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Arnorsson, Agust & Zoega, Gylfi, 2018. "On the causes of Brexit," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 301-323.
    8. Andreas Steinmayr, 2016. "Exposure to Refugees and Voting for the Far-Right. (Unexpected) Results from Austria," WIFO Working Papers 514, WIFO.
    9. Ildefonso Mendez & Isabel Cutillas, 2014. "Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 135-171, January.
    10. Otto, Alkis Henri & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2014. "Immigration and election outcomes — Evidence from city districts in Hamburg," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 67-79.
    11. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    12. Clément Malgouyres, 2017. "Trade Shocks and Far-Right Voting: Evidence from French Presidential Elections," RSCAS Working Papers 2017/21, European University Institute.
    13. Jonathan Wadsworth, 2015. "Immigration and the UK Labour Market," CEP Election Analysis Papers 019, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7qh1ffjmcs94eag0i47p8t150j is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Max Viskanic, 2020. "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Did Immigration Cause Brexit?," Working Papers hal-03471315, HAL.
    3. Max Viskanic, 2020. "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Did Immigration Cause Brexit?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03471315, HAL.
    4. Edo, Anthony & Giesing, Yvonne & Öztunc, Jonathan & Poutvaara, Panu, 2019. "Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 99-143.
    5. Paul Vertier & Max Viskanic, 2018. "Dismantling the "Jungle": Migrant Relocation and Extreme Voting in France," CESifo Working Paper Series 6927, CESifo.
    6. Eugenio Levi & Rama Dasi Mariani & Fabrizio Patriarca, 2020. "Hate at first sight? Dynamic aspects of the electoral impact of migration: the case of Ukip," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 1-32, January.
    7. Jakub Lonsky, 2021. "Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 97-139, January.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Marco Tabellini, 2024. "The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 5-46, March.
    9. Stelios Roupakias & Michael Chletsos, 2020. "Immigration and far-right voting: evidence from Greece," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 65(3), pages 591-617, December.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Marco Tabellini, 2024. "The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 5-46, March.
    11. Bratti, Massimiliano & Deiana, Claudio & Havari, Enkelejda & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Meroni, Elena Claudia, 2017. "What Are You Voting For? Proximity to Refugee Reception Centres and Voting in the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum," IZA Discussion Papers 11060, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Ethan J Grumstrup & Todd Sorensen & Jan Misiuna & Marta Pachocka, 2021. "Immigration and Voting Patterns in the European Union: Evidence from Five Case Studies and Cross-Country Analysis," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 18(5), pages 573-589, September.
    13. Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2018. "Immigration and Nationalism: The Importance of Identity," CSEF Working Papers 511, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    14. Max Viskanic, 2019. "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail 2016-18 | Migrants, Refugees and the rise of Far Right Populism," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/54p3kn4dif9, Sciences Po.
    15. Russo, Francesco Flaviano, 2021. "Immigration and nationalism: The importance of identity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/54p3kn4dif9c6p441joi37h8vp is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Tommaso Colussi & Ingo E. Isphording & Nico Pestel, 2021. "Minority Salience and Political Extremism," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-271, July.
    18. Paul Vertier, 2018. "The democratic challenges of electoral representation and populism : an empirical approach [Les défis démocratiques de la représentation électorale et du populisme : une approche empirique]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03419534, HAL.
    19. Matti Sarvimäki, 2021. "Managing Refugee Protection Crises: Policy Lessons from Economics and Political Science," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2131, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    20. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    21. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    22. Becker, Sascha O. & Fetzer, Thiemo, 2016. "Does Migration Cause Extreme Voting?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 306, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Economy; Voting; Migration; Brexit; EU; UK;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7qh1ffjmcs94eag0i47p8t150j. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Spire @ Sciences Po Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecspofr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.