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Immobilier et politique monétaire

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  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE)

Abstract

Nous proposons dans cet article une modélisation et des estimations économétriques permettant de représenter et de quantifier le canal de stimulation monétaire par l’immobilier. Cette modélisation apparaît robuste, conduit à un ordre de grandeur plausible et permet de mesurer les différences de sensibilité des différents pays à la stimulation monétaire entreprise depuis 2001. D’après nos estimations, la sensibilité de l’économie européenne à une baisse des taux d’intérêt est deux à trois fois inférieure à celle de l’économie américaine. Combinée à une réactivité plus faible et plus timide de la banque centrale, cela implique une moindre régulation de la conjoncture de la zone euro par les taux d’intérêt. La moindre sensibilité de l’économie européenne résulte de facteurs multiples et complexes : d’une part, les évolutions défavorables du revenu et du chômage ont limité le développement de l’endettement des ménages en France et en Allemagne ; d’autre part, des facteurs structurels, liés au fonctionnement du système bancaire, limitent l’impact de la politique monétaire via ce canal en Europe.

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File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/1753/resources/7-96.pdf
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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/1753.

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Date of creation: Jan 1996
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Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 1996, pp.115-151
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1753

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  1. Pisani, Florence & Brender, Anton, 2004. "La nouvelle économie américaine," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4189, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version: e-mod.fr," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1631, Sciences Po.
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Cited by:
  1. Kierzenkowski, R. & Oung, V., 2007. "L’évolution des crédits à l’habitat en France : une grille d’analyse en termes de cycles," Working papers 172, Banque de France.

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