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Expectations and Monetary Policy: Experimental Evidence

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  • Oleksiy Kryvtsov

    ()
    (Bank of Canada)

  • Luba Petersen

    ()
    (Simon Fraser University)

Abstract

The effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on market expectations of its future actions. In a standard New Keynesian business cycle model with rational expectations, systematic monetary policy reduces the variance of inflation and output gap by at least two-thirds. These stabilization benefits can be substantially smaller if expectations are non-rational. We design an economic experiment that identifies the contribution of expectations to macroeconomic stabilization achieved by systematic monetary policy. We find that, despite some non-rational component in expectations formed by experiment participants, monetary policy is quite potent in providing stabilization, reducing roughly a half of macroeconomic variance.te potent in providing stabilization, reducing roughly a half of macroeconomic variance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University in its series Discussion Papers with number dp13-09.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp13-09

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Postal: Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
Phone: (778)782-3508
Fax: (778)782-5944
Web page: http://www.sfu.ca/economics.html
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Postal: Working Paper Coordinator, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
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Related research

Keywords: Expectations; Monetary Policy; Inflation; Laboratory Experiment; Experimental Macroeconomics;

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References

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  1. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation," Working Paper Series 0492, European Central Bank.
  2. Ramon Marimon & Stephen E. Spear & Shyam Sunder, 1992. "Expectationally-driven market volatility: an experimental study," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 73, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2012. "Reducing overreaction to central banks' disclosures : theory and experiment," Working Papers halshs-00657943, HAL.
  4. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2010. "What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?," 2010 Meeting Papers 277, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Tiziana Assenza & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2013. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-016/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  7. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation: Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by CentER DP 2012-072)," Discussion Paper 2011-053, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
  9. Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2009. "Monetary Policy Lag, Zero Lower Bound, and Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 09-2, Bank of Canada.
  10. Nelson, Philip, 1974. "Advertising as Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 729-54, July/Aug..
  11. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The experimental macroeconomics of monetary policy
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-11-05 16:44:00
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Cited by:
  1. Jasmina Arifovic & Janet Hua Jiang, 2014. "Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs," Working Papers 14-12, Bank of Canada.
  2. Jasmina ARIFOVIC & Murat YILDIZOGLU, 2014. "Learning the Ramsey outcome in a Kydland & Prescott economy," Cahiers du GREThA 2014-06, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  3. Guidon Fenig & Mariya Mileva & Luba Petersen, 2013. "Asset Trading and Monetary Policy in Production Economies," Working Papers dp13-08, CRABE, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.

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