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Using Subjective Income Expectations to Test for Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Predicted Income Growth

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Author Info
Luigi Pistaferri () (University College London, Istituto Universitario Navale, Napoli and CSEF, University of Salerno)
Tullio Jappelli () (CSEF, Università di Salerno, and CEPR)

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Abstract

We test for precautionary saving and excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth using a 1989-93 panel survey of Italian households that has measures of subjective income and inflation expectations. These expectations provide a powerful instrument for predicting income growth. The empirical specification controls for predictable changes in labor supply and allows a fairly general specification for the stochastic structure of the forecast error. We find that consumption growth is positively correlated with the expected variance of income and uncorrelated with predicted income growth. Overall, the results support the precautionary saving model

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy in its series CSEF Working Papers with number 12.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 1998
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Publication status: Published in European Economic Review, February 2000, vol. 44, pages 337-358
Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:12

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Related research
Keywords: Subjective expectations; precautionary saving; excess sensitivity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Discussion Papers 96-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  2. Garcia, Rene & Lusardi, Annamaria & Ng, Serena, 1997. "Excess Sensitivity and Asymmetries in Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 154-76, May.
    Other versions:
  3. Karen E. Dynan, 1993. "How prudent are consumers?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Guiso, L. & Jappelli, T. & Terlizzese, D., 1992. "Why is Italy Saving Rate so High?," Papers 167, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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  6. Hayashi, Fumio, 1985. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis and Consumption Durability: Analysis Based on Japanese Panel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1083-1113, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-57, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sydney Ludvigson & Christina H. Paxson, 1997. "Approximation bias in linearized Euler equations," Research Paper 9712, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  9. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-46, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Christopher D Carroll, 1990. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive 371, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Aug 1996.
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  13. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1996. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption: Evidence from Two Panel Data Sets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 81-90, January.
  14. Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1997. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 137-154, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2004. "Imputing consumption in the PSID using food demand estimates from the CEX," IFS Working Papers W04/27, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jonathan Fisher & Larry Filer & Angela Lyons, . "Is the Bankruptcy Flag Binding? Access to Credit Markets for Post-Bankruptcy Households," American Law & Economics Association Annual Meetings 1041, American Law & Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  3. Steven Haider & Melvin Stephens Jr., 2004. "Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations," NBER Working Papers 10257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 1999. "The Dynamics of Household Wealth Accumulation in Italy," CSEF Working Papers 27, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 01 Dec 2000. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Giamboni, Luigi & Millemaci, Emanuele & Waldmann, Robert, 2007. "Evaluating how predictable errors in expected income a ffect consumption," MPRA Paper 12939, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mario Padula, 2000. "Excess Smoothness and Durable Goods: Evidence from Subjective Expectations Data," CSEF Working Papers 38, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Giamboni Luigi & Waldmann Robert, 2004. "A behavioral model of consumption," Departmental Working Papers 202, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2000. "Intertemporal Choice and Consumption Mobility," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0118, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Miki Kohara & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "Do Borrowing Constraints Matter? An Analysis of Why the Permanent Income Hypothesis Does Not Apply in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0663, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Sònia Muñoz, 2006. "Wealth Effects in Europe: A Tale of Two Countries (Italy and the United Kingdom)," IMF Working Papers 06/30, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Melvin Stephens Jr. & Steven J. Haider, 2003. "Can Unexpected Retirement Explain The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence For Subjective Retirement Expectations," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2003-15, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Paiella, Monica & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2007. "Choosing Between Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgages," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp07033, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kohei Kubota & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2009. "Rational consumers," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 09-15, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP). [Downloadable!]
  14. Pistaferri, Luigi, 2002. "Anticipated and Unanticipated Wage Changes, Wage Risk, and Intertemporal Labour Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 3628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2005. "Household Debt and Financial Assets: Evidence from Great Britain, Germany and the United States," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]
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