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Co-evolution vs. Neural Networks; An Evaluation of UK Risky Money

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  • Alicia Gazely
  • Jane Binner
  • Graham Kendall
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    Abstract

    The performance of a "capital certain" Divisia index constructed using the same components included in the Bank of England"s MSI plus national savings; a "risky" Divisia index constructed by adding bonds, shares and unit trusts to the list of assets included in the first index; and a capital certain simple sum index for comparison is compared. nce suggests that co-evolutionary strategies are superior to neural networks in the majority of cases. The risky money index performs at least as well as the Bank of England Divisia index when combined with interest rate information. Notably, the provision of long term interest rates improves the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the Bank of England Divisia index in all cases examined

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    File URL: http://repec.org/sce2004/up.17787.1077961545.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 258.

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    Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:258

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    Keywords: Evolutionary Strategies; Risk Adjusted Divisia; Inflation; Neural Networks;

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    1. Drake, Leigh & Fleissig, Adrian R & Mullineux, Andy, 1999. "Are "Risky Assets" Substitutes for "Monetary Assets"?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(3), pages 510-26, July.
    2. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 1462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jane M. Binner & Stuart I. Wattam, 2003. "A new composite leading indicator of inflation for the UK: a Kalman filter approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 242-264.
    4. Elger Thomas & Binner Jane M., 2004. "The UK Household Sector Demand for Risky Money," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, March.
    5. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-83, October.
    6. Dorsey, Robert E & Mayer, Walter J, 1995. "Genetic Algorithms for Estimation Problems with Multiple Optima, Nondifferentiability, and Other Irregular Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 53-66, January.
    7. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    8. Drake, L. & Mullineux, A. & Agung, J., 1998. "Incorporating Riskt Assets in Divita Monetary Aggregates," Discussion Papers 98-25, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    9. Jane Binner & Alicia Gazely & Shu-Heng Chen, 2002. "Financial innovation and Divisia monetary indices in Taiwan: a neural network approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 238-247.
    10. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," Macroeconomics 0503017, EconWPA.
    11. Drake, Leigh & Chrystal, K Alec, 1997. "Personal Sector Money Demand in the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 188-206, April.
    12. Schunk, Donald L, 2001. "The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 272-83, May.
    13. J. M. Binner & A. Fielding & A. W. Mullineux, 1999. "Divisia money in a composite leading indicator of inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1021-1031.
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