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The Exact Theoretical Rational Expectations Monetary Aggregate

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Author Info

  • William Barnett

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

  • Melvin J. Hinich

    (University of Texas at Austin)

  • Piyu Yue

    (IC2 Institute at the University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

In aggregation theory, index numbers are judged relative to their ability to track the exact aggregator functions nested within the economy’s structure. Within the monetary sector, Barnett, Liu, and Jensen (1997) compared two statistical index numbers: the Divisia monetary aggregate and the simple sum monetary aggregate. They produced those comparisons using simulated data. In this paper, we again compare those two statistical index numbers with the exact rational expectations monetary aggregate, but we use actual data. Since we are not using simulated data, we estimate the parameters of the Euler equations and thereby of the nested monetary aggregator function using generalized method of moments. We explore the tracking errors of the two index numbers relative to the estimated exact aggregate. We investigate the circumstances under which risk aversion increases tracking error. We also use polyspectral methods to test for the existence of remaining nonlinear structure in the residual tracking errors.

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File URL: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/2009Papers/201229.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 201229.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision: Sep 2012
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201229

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Keywords: Monetary aggregation; index number theory; spectral analysis; nonlinearity;

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References

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  1. James M. Poterba & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1986. "Money in the Utility Function: An Empirical Implementation," Working papers 408, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Hong, Yongmiao, 1996. "Consistent Testing for Serial Correlation of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 837-64, July.
  3. Barnett, William A & Offenbacher, Edward K & Spindt, Paul A, 1984. "The New Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1049-85, December.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  5. K. Alec Chrystal & Ronald MacDonald, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the recent behavior and usefulness of simple-sum and weighted measures of the money stock," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 73-109.
  6. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
  7. Barnett, William A & Fisher, Douglas & Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2086-2119, December.
  8. Daniel L. Thornton & Piyu Yue, 1992. "An extended series of divisia monetary aggregates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 35-52.
  9. Swofford, James L & Whitney, Gerald A, 1987. "Nonparametric Tests of Utility Maximization and Weak Separability for Consumption, Leisure and Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 458-64, August.
  10. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-83, October.
  11. William A. Barnett & Ge Zhou, 1994. "Financial firm's production and supply-side monetary aggregation under dynamic uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 133-165.
  12. William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan & Mark J. Jensen, 1996. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos," Econometrics 9602005, EconWPA, revised 20 Sep 1996.
  13. Barnett, William A. & Geweke, John & Wolfe, Michael, 1991. "Seminonparametric Bayesian estimation of the asymptotically ideal production model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 5-50.
  14. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," Macroeconomics 0503017, EconWPA.
  15. repec:att:wimass:9520 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Barnett, William A. & Liu, Yi & Jensen, Mark, 1997. "Capm Risk Adjustment For Exact Aggregation Over Financial Assets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 485-512, June.
  17. William A. Barnett & Melvin Hinich & Piyu Yue, 1989. "Monitoring monetary aggregates under risk aversion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 189-245.
  18. Michael T. Belongia & James A. Chalfant, 1986. "The changing empirical definition of money: some estimates from a model of the demand for money substitutes," Working Papers 1986-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  19. William A. Barnett & Milka Kirova & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1994. "Estimating policy-invariant deep parameters in the financial sector when risk and growth matter," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1402-1440.
  20. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
  21. Hinich, Melvin J. & Patterson, Douglas M., 1985. "Identification of the coefficients in a non-linear : time series of the quadratic type," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 269-288.
  22. Barnett, William A. & Ronald Gallant, A. & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1995. "Robustness of nonlinearity and chaos tests to measurement error, inference method, and sample size," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 301-320, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. William A Barnett & Unja Chae & John W Keating, 2012. "Forecast Design In Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1250005-1-1.
  2. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Heather L. R. Tierney, 2007. "Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200706, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2008.
  3. Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas & de Peretti, Philipe, 2002. "Is UK Risky Money Weakly Separable? A Stochastic Approach," Working Papers 2002:13, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  4. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2004. "Intertemporally non-separable monetary-asset risk adjustment and aggregation," Macroeconomics 0406010, EconWPA.
  5. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2005. "On user costs of risky monetary assets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 35-50, 01.
  6. Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas, 2002. "The UK Personal Sector Demand for Risky Money," Working Papers 2002:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  7. Michael T. Belongia, 1992. "Selecting an intermediate target variable for monetary policy when the goal is price stability," Working Papers 1992-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2004:i:13:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS

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