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Selecting an intermediate target variable for monetary policy when the goal is price stability

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Michael T. Belongia

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Abstract

Conventional investigations of the "best" intermediate target variable for monetary policy have used a single criterion: the best fit between the behavior of an aggregate and that of some goal variable such as nominal spending or the aggregate price level. Ignored in this type of study, however, is the ability of the central bank to control the behavior of the aggregate which has the best fit relative to the goal variable. This paper treats the issue of monetary control explicitly and selects an intermediate target variable on the basis of a joint criterion of monetary control and relationship with the aggregate price level. The results indicate that all of the traditional simple sum aggregates perform poorly relative to Divisia aggregates or the currency-equivalent (CE) measure recently proposed by Rotemberg, et al.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1992-008.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1992-008

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Prices;

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
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  2. William A. Barnett & Melvin J. Hinich & Piyu Yue, . "The Exact Theoretical Rational Expectations Monetary Aggregate," Macroeconomics 0003004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. W. Lee Hoskins, 1991. "Defending zero inflation: all for naught," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 16-20. [Downloadable!]
  4. Boschen, John F & Talbot, Kathleen E, 1991. "Monetary Base Growth, Deposit Growth, and Inflation in the Postwar United States," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 313-37, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-68, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Belongia, Michael T & Chalfant, James A, 1989. "The Changing Empirical Definition of Money: Some Estimates from a Model of the Demand for Money Substitutes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 387-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Barnett, William A., 1978. "The user cost of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 145-149. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "The multiplier approach to the money supply process: a precautionary note," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-64. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Leonall C. Andersen & Denis S. Karnosky, 1977. "Some considerations in the use of monetary aggregates for the implementation of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 2-7. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gerald P. Dwyer & R.W. Hafer, 1988. "Is money irrelevant?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 3-17. [Downloadable!]
  14. W. Lee Hoskins, 1991. "Defending zero inflation: all for naught," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr 1. [Downloadable!]
  15. Laidler, David, 1991. "The Quantity Theory Is Always and Everywhere Controversial--Why?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(199), pages 289-306, December.
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