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Selecting an intermediate target variable for monetary policy when the goal is price stability

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  • Michael T. Belongia

Abstract

Conventional investigations of the "best" intermediate target variable for monetary policy have used a single criterion: the best fit between the behavior of an aggregate and that of some goal variable such as nominal spending or the aggregate price level. Ignored in this type of study, however, is the ability of the central bank to control the behavior of the aggregate which has the best fit relative to the goal variable. This paper treats the issue of monetary control explicitly and selects an intermediate target variable on the basis of a joint criterion of monetary control and relationship with the aggregate price level. The results indicate that all of the traditional simple sum aggregates perform poorly relative to Divisia aggregates or the currency-equivalent (CE) measure recently proposed by Rotemberg, et al.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1992-008.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1992-008

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Prices;

References

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  1. Barnett, William A. & Hinich, Melvin J. & Yue, Piyu, 2000. "The Exact Theoretical Rational Expectations Monetary Aggregate," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 197-221, June.
  2. W. Lee Hoskins, 1991. "Defending zero inflation: all for naught," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 16-20.
  3. Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-68, May.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
  5. Leonall C. Andersen & Denis S. Karnosky, 1977. "Some considerations in the use of monetary aggregates for the implementation of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 2-7.
  6. Laidler, David, 1991. "The Quantity Theory Is Always and Everywhere Controversial--Why?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(199), pages 289-306, December.
  7. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
  8. Boschen, John F & Talbot, Kathleen E, 1991. "Monetary Base Growth, Deposit Growth, and Inflation in the Postwar United States," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 313-37, July.
  9. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September.
  10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May.
  11. Gerald P. Dwyer & R.W. Hafer, 1988. "Is money irrelevant?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 3-17.
  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
  13. Belongia, Michael T & Chalfant, James A, 1989. "The Changing Empirical Definition of Money: Some Estimates from a Model of the Demand for Money Substitutes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 387-97, April.
  14. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "The multiplier approach to the money supply process: a precautionary note," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-64.
  15. W. Lee Hoskins, 1991. "Defending zero inflation: all for naught," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.
  16. Barnett, William A., 1978. "The user cost of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 145-149.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. There is nothing “unconventional” about money base control
    by Lars Christensen in The Market Monetarist on 2013-11-30 09:06:27
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Cited by:
  1. Thornton, Saranna Robinson, 2000. "How do broader monetary aggregates and divisia measures of money perform in McCallum's adaptive monetary rule?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 181-204.
  2. Tang, Maggie May-Jean & Puah, Chin-Hong & Awang Marikan, Dayang-Affizzah, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Neutrality Hypothesis Using Divisia Money," MPRA Paper 50020, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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