Interaction of Formal and Informal Financial Markets in Quasi-Emerging Market Economies
AbstractThe primary objective of this paper is to investigate the interaction of formal and informal financial markets and their impact on economic activity in quasi-emerging market economies. Using a four-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with asymmetric information in the formal financial sector, we come up with three fundamental findings. First, we demonstrate that formal and informal financial sector loans are complementary in the aggregate, suggesting that an increase in the use of formal financial sector credit creates additional productive capacity that requires more informal financial sector credit to maintain equilibrium. Second, it is shown that interest rates in the formal and informal financial sectors do not always change together in the same direction. We demonstrate that in some instances, interest rates in the two sectors change in diametrically opposed directions with the implication that the informal financial sector may frustrate monetary policy, the extent of which depends on the size of the informal financial sector. Thus, the larger the size of the informal financial sector the lower the likely impact of monetary policy on economic activity. Third, the model shows that the risk factor (probability of success) for both high and low risk borrowers plays an important role in determining the magnitude by which macroeconomic indicators respond to shocks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 326.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
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Informal financial sector; formal financial sector; monetary policy; general equilibrium;
Other versions of this item:
- Ngalawa, Harold & Viegi, Nicola, 2013. "Interaction of formal and informal financial markets in quasi-emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 614-624.
- Harold Ngalawa & Nicola Viegi, 2013. "Interaction of Formal and Informal Financial Markets in Quasi-Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 201306, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2013-01-26 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-IUE-2013-01-26 (Informal & Underground Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-01-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MFD-2013-01-26 (Microfinance)
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