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Interaction of Formal and Informal Financial Markets in Quasi-Emerging Market Economies

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  • Harold P.E. Ngalawa and Nicola Viegi

Abstract

The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the interaction of formal and informal financial markets and their impact on economic activity in quasi-emerging market economies. Using a four-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with asymmetric information in the formal financial sector, we come up with three fundamental findings. First, we demonstrate that formal and informal financial sector loans are complementary in the aggregate, suggesting that an increase in the use of formal financial sector credit creates additional productive capacity that requires more informal financial sector credit to maintain equilibrium. Second, it is shown that interest rates in the formal and informal financial sectors do not always change together in the same direction. We demonstrate that in some instances, interest rates in the two sectors change in diametrically opposed directions with the implication that the informal financial sector may frustrate monetary policy, the extent of which depends on the size of the informal financial sector. Thus, the larger the size of the informal financial sector the lower the likely impact of monetary policy on economic activity. Third, the model shows that the risk factor (probability of success) for both high and low risk borrowers plays an important role in determining the magnitude by which macroeconomic indicators respond to shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 326.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:326

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Keywords: Informal financial sector; formal financial sector; monetary policy; general equilibrium;

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References

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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2006. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," NBER Working Papers 12349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Bell, Clive, 1990. "Interactions between Institutional and Informal Credit Agencies in Rural India," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 4(3), pages 297-327, September.
  8. Bolnick, Bruce R., 1992. "Moneylenders and informal financial markets in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 57-68, January.
  9. Chipeta, C. & Mkandawire, M.L.C., 1992. "Links Between the Informal and Formal/semi-Formal Financial Sectors in Malawi," Papers 14, African Economic Research Consortium.
  10. Guangling (dave Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2007. "A Small-Scale Dsge Model For Forecasting The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 179-193, 06.
  11. Benhabib, Jess & Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2005. "Introduction to monetary policy and capital accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 1-3, July.
  12. Miguel A. Savastano & Paul R. Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  14. Steel, William F. & Aryeetey, Ernest & Hettige, Hemamala & Nissanke, Machiko, 1997. "Informal financial markets under liberalization in four African countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 817-830, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Chance Mwabutwa & Manoel Bittencourt & Nicola Viegi, 2012. "Financial Reforms and Consumption Behaviour in Malawi," Working Papers 306, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. Duo Qin & Zhong Xu & Xue-Chun Zhang, 2013. "How Much Has Private Credit Lending Reacted to Monetary Policy in China? The Case of Wenzhou," Working Papers 178, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK.
  3. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-682.
  4. Chance Mwabutwa & Nicola Viegi & Manoel Bittencourt, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Capital Inflows in Form of Foreign Aid in Malawi," Working Papers 201232, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Bo Yang, 2011. "Informality, Frictions and Monetary Policy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0711, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  6. Chance Mwabutwa & Manoel Bittencourt & Nicola Viegi, 2013. "Evolution of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Malawi: A TVP-VAR Approach," Working Papers 201327, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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