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Assessing and exploiting the profit function by modeling the net impact of targeted marketing

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  • W. BUCKINX
  • D. VAN DEN POEL

    ()

Abstract

The success of a direct marketing campaign is driven by the ability of companies to estimate customers’ future contribution to their profitability. Especially when considering that in retailing companies are wasting resources when targeting customers who will make purchases even in case they would not receive a mailing. We present an advanced profit evaluation, which rates customers for the net impact of a campaign on their buying behavior. Moreover, in contrast to current practices and theory, we model each part of the profit function to improve the accuracy of expected customer value. We employ logistic regression and multiple linear regression to estimate future purchase probabilities and customer expenditures. Variables of different types are considered and a variable selection technique is used to avoid overfitting. To validate our findings, we implemented the method into the mailing system of a European retailer. Our results are of major importance for direct marketing managers, since they make the company’s total profit increase by 5 per cent. This result can be attributed to both a reduction of the optimal mailing depth by 65 per cent, which shows that current procedures lead to systematic ‘overmailing’, and a modified ranking of the customers in the segmentation list.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 05/330.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/330

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  1. Sophie Claeys, & Gleb Lanine & Koen Schoors, 2005. "Bank Supervision Russian style: Rules versus Enforcement and Tacit Objectives," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp778, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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  4. G. Poels & A. Maes & F. Gailly, 2005. "User Attitudes towards Pattern-Based Enterprise Information Models: A Replicated Experiment with REA Diagrams," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/315, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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  11. Arne Schollaert & Dirk Van de gaer, 2008. "Boycotts, Power Politics, or Trust Building: How to Prevent Conflict?," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 164(2), pages 356-379, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. W. Bruggeman & P. Everaert & S. R. Anderson & Y. Levant, 2005. "Modeling Logistics Costs using Time-Driven ABC: A Case in a Distribution Company," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/332, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. P. Windels & J. Christiaens, 2005. "Management Reform in Flemish Local Authorities: Testing the Institutional Framework," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/331, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  3. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: A structural time series approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. M. Vanhoucke & B. Maenhout, 2005. "Characterisation and Generation of Nurse Scheduling Problem Instances," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/339, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Jan Lepoutre & Nikolay Dentchev & Aimé Heene, 2007. "Dealing With Uncertainties When Governing CSR Policies," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 391-408, July.
  6. Ooghe, H. & Spaenjers, C. & Pieter vandermoere, 2005. "Business failure prediction: simple-intuitive models versus statistical models," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2005-22, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
  7. N. Geeroms & P. Van Kenhove & W. Verbeke, 2005. "Health Advertising to promote Fruit and Vegetable Intake: Application of need-related Health Audience Segmentation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/336, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  8. Maenhout, B. & Vanhoucke, M., 2006. "New computational results for the nurse scheduling problem: A scatter search algorithm," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2006-06, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
  9. J. Albrecht & M. Neyt & T. Verbeke, 2005. "Bureaucratisation and the growth of health care expenditures in Europe," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/335, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  10. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income Uncertainty and Aggregate Consumption," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/334, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  11. E. Labro & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "A simulation analysis of interactions between errors in costing system design," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/333, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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