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Predicting Customer Loyalty Using The Internal Transactional Database

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Author Info

  • W. BUCKINX
  • G. VERSTRAETEN

    ()

  • D. VAN DEN POEL

    ()

Abstract

Loyalty and targeting are central topics in Customer Relationship Management. Yet, the information that resides in customer databases only records transactions at a single company, whereby customer loyalty is generally unavailable. In this study, we enrich the customer database with a prediction of a customer's behavioral loyalty such that it can be deployed for targeted marketing actions without the necessity to measure the loyalty of every single customer. To this end, we compare multiple linear regression with two state-of-the-art machine learning techniques (random forests and automatic relevance determination neural networks), and we show that (i) a customer’s behavioral loyalty can be predicted to a reasonable degree using the transactional database, (ii) given that overfitting is controlled for by the variable-selection procedure we propose in this study, a multiple linear regression model significantly outperforms the other models, (iii) the proposed variable-selection procedure has a beneficial impact on the reduction of multicollinearity, and (iv) the most important indicator of behavioral loyalty consists of the variety of products previously purchased.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 05/324.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/324

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Related research

Keywords: Predictive modeling; customer relationship management; behavioral loyalty; overfitting; multicollinearity; data enrichment;

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References

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  1. S. CLAEYS & G. LANINE & K. SCHOORs, 2005. "Bank Supervision Russian Style: Rules vs Enforcement and Tacit Objectives," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/307, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. P. Everaert & G. Sarens, 2005. "Outsourcing bij Vlaamse Ondernemingen: een Exploratief Onderzoek," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/306, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  3. A. Maes & G. Poels & F. Gailly & R. Paemeleire, 2005. "Measuring User Beliefs and Attitudes towards Conceptual Models: A Factor and Structural Equation Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/311, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  4. I. Vermeir & M. Geuens, 2005. "Need for Closure and Youngsters’ Leisure Time Preferences," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/318, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Vandevoorde, S. & Vanhoucke, M., 2005. "A comparison of different project duration forecasting methods using earned value metrics," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2005-16, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
  6. M. Vanhoucke & D. Debels, 2005. "The Discrete Time/Cost Trade-Off Problem Under Various Assumptions Exact And Heuristic Procedures," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/314, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  7. A. Heirman & B. Clarysse, 2005. "The imprinting effect of initial resources and market strategy on the early growth path of start-Ups," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/310, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  8. G. Poels & A. Maes & F. Gailly, 2005. "User Attitudes towards Pattern-Based Enterprise Information Models: A Replicated Experiment with REA Diagrams," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/315, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  9. M. Vanhoucke & S. Vandevoorde, 2005. "A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/317, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  10. Sophie Claeys, & Gleb Lanine & Koen Schoors, 2005. "Bank Supervision Russian style: Rules versus Enforcement and Tacit Objectives," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp778, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  11. B. Maenhout & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "An Electromagnetic Meta-Heuristic for the Nurse Scheduling Problem," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/316, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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Cited by:
  1. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Paper Research 70, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. W. Bruggeman & P. Everaert & S. R. Anderson & Y. Levant, 2005. "Modeling Logistics Costs using Time-Driven ABC: A Case in a Distribution Company," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/332, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  3. Jan Lepoutre & Nikolay Dentchev & Aimé Heene, 2007. "Dealing With Uncertainties When Governing CSR Policies," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 391-408, July.
  4. W. Buckinx & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "Assessing and exploiting the profit function by modeling the net impact of targeted marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/330, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. N. Geeroms & P. Van Kenhove & W. Verbeke, 2005. "Health Advertising to promote Fruit and Vegetable Intake: Application of need-related Health Audience Segmentation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/336, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  6. B. Maenhout & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "New Computational Results for the Nurse Scheduling Problem: A Scatter Search Algorithm," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/341, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  7. E. Labro & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "A simulation analysis of interactions between errors in costing system design," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/333, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  8. M. Vanhoucke & B. Maenhout, 2005. "Characterisation and Generation of Nurse Scheduling Problem Instances," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/339, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  9. P. Windels & J. Christiaens, 2005. "Management Reform in Flemish Local Authorities: Testing the Institutional Framework," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/331, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  10. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income Uncertainty and Aggregate Consumption," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/334, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  11. H. Ooghe & C. Spaenjers & P. Vandermoere, 2005. "Business failure prediction: simple-intuitive models versus statistical models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/338, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  12. J. Albrecht & M. Neyt & T. Verbeke, 2005. "Bureaucratisation and the growth of health care expenditures in Europe," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/335, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  13. A. Karas & K. Schoors, 2005. "Heracles or Sisyphus? Finding, cleaning and reconstructing a database of Russian banks," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/327, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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  1. 忠诚度管理 in Wikipedia Chinese ne '')
  2. Loyalty business model in Wikipedia English ne '')

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