Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Business failure prediction: simple-intuitive models versus statistical models

Contents:

Author Info

  • H. OOGHE

    ()

  • C. SPAENJERS

    ()

  • P. VANDERMOERE

    ()

Abstract

We give an overview of the shortcomings of the most frequently used statistical techniques in failure prediction modelling. The statistical procedures that underpin the selection of variables and the determination of coefficients often lead to ‘overfitting’. We also see that the ‘expected signs’ of variables are sometimes neglected and that an underlying theoretical framework mostly does not exist. Based on the current knowledge of failing firms, we construct a new type of failure prediction models, namely ‘simple-intuitive models’. In these models, eight variables are first logit-transformed and then equally weighted. These models are tested on two broad validation samples (1 year prior to failure and 3 years prior to failure) of Belgian companies. The performance results of the best simple-intuitive model are comparable to those of less transparent and more complex statistical models.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.feb.ugent.be/nl/Ondz/wp/Papers/wp_05_338.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 05/338.

as in new window
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/338

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Hoveniersberg 4, B-9000 Gent
Phone: ++ 32 (0) 9 264 34 61
Fax: ++ 32 (0) 9 264 35 92
Web page: http://www.ugent.be/eb
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. W. Buckinx & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "Assessing and exploiting the profit function by modeling the net impact of targeted marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/330, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. A. Heirman & B. Clarysse, 2005. "The imprinting effect of initial resources and market strategy on the early growth path of start-Ups," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/310, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  3. I. Vermeir & M. Geuens, 2005. "Need for Closure and Youngsters’ Leisure Time Preferences," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/318, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  4. M. Buelens & D. Bouckenooghe & D. De Clercq & A. Willem, 2005. "An Assessment of Validity in Small Business and Entrepreneurship Research," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/328, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Vandevoorde, S. & Vanhoucke, M., 2005. "A comparison of different project duration forecasting methods using earned value metrics," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2005-16, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
  6. M. Knockaert & A. Lockett & B. Clarysse & M. Wright, 2005. "Do human capital and fund characteristics drive follow-up behaviour of early stage high tech VCs?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/325, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  7. D. Vantomme & M. Geuens & S. Dewitte, 2005. "How to Portray Men and Women in Advertisements? Explicit and Implicit Evaluations of Ads Depicting Different Gender Roles," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/319, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  8. Bruno Merlevede & Koen Schoors, 2005. "How to Catch Foreign Fish? FDI and Privatization in EU Accession Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp785, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  9. J. Albrecht & M. Neyt & T. Verbeke, 2005. "Bureaucratisation and the growth of health care expenditures in Europe," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/335, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  10. G. Poels & F. Gailly & A. Maes & R. Paemeleire, 2005. "Object Class or Association Class? Testing the User Effect on Cardinality Interpretation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/323, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  11. M. Vanhoucke & D. Debels, 2005. "The Discrete Time/Cost Trade-Off Problem Under Various Assumptions Exact And Heuristic Procedures," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/314, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  12. K. Baeyens & T. Vanacker & S. Manigart, 2005. "Venture capitalists’ selection process: the case of biotechnology proposals," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/313, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  13. P. Everaert & G. Sarens, 2005. "Outsourcing bij Vlaamse Ondernemingen: een Exploratief Onderzoek," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/306, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  14. A. Maes & G. Poels & F. Gailly & R. Paemeleire, 2005. "Measuring User Beliefs and Attitudes towards Conceptual Models: A Factor and Structural Equation Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/311, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  15. S. CLAEYS & G. LANINE & K. SCHOORs, 2005. "Bank Supervision Russian Style: Rules vs Enforcement and Tacit Objectives," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/307, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  16. P. Windels & J. Christiaens, 2005. "Management Reform in Flemish Local Authorities: Testing the Institutional Framework," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/331, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  17. N. Geeroms & P. Van Kenhove & W. Verbeke, 2005. "Health Advertising to promote Fruit and Vegetable Intake: Application of need-related Health Audience Segmentation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/336, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  18. B. Maenhout & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "An Electromagnetic Meta-Heuristic for the Nurse Scheduling Problem," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/316, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  19. A. Karas & K. Schoors, 2005. "Heracles or Sisyphus? Finding, cleaning and reconstructing a database of Russian banks," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/327, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  20. M. Vanhoucke & S. Vandevoorde, 2005. "A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/317, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  21. Claeys, Sophie & Lanine, Gleb & Schoors, Koen, 2005. "Bank supervision Russian style: Rules versus enforcement and tacit objectives," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  22. G. Lanine & R. Vander Vennet, 2005. "Failure prediction in the Russian bank sector with logit and trait recognition models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/329, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  23. B. Weijters & M. Geuens & S. Dewitte, 2005. "Evaluation of age-related labels by senior citizens," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/320, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  24. A. Schollaert & D. Van De Gaer, 2005. "Boycotts, power politics or trust building: how to prevent conflict?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/308, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  25. W. Bruggeman & P. Everaert & S. R. Anderson & Y. Levant, 2005. "Modeling Logistics Costs using Time-Driven ABC: A Case in a Distribution Company," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/332, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  26. V. Vansteeger, 2005. "The current state of accounting harmonization: impediments to and benefits from harmonization," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/322, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  27. J. Lepoutre & N. A. Dentchev & A. Heene, 2005. "Dealing With Uncertainties When Governing CSR Policies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/337, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  28. G. Poels & A. Maes & F. Gailly, 2005. "User Attitudes towards Pattern-Based Enterprise Information Models: A Replicated Experiment with REA Diagrams," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/315, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  29. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income Uncertainty and Aggregate Consumption," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/334, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  30. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income uncertainty and aggregate consumption," Working Paper Research 77, National Bank of Belgium.
  31. W. Buckinx & G. Verstraeten & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "Predicting Customer Loyalty Using The Internal Transactional Database," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/324, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  32. E. Labro & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "A simulation analysis of interactions between errors in costing system design," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/333, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2010. "The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 500-510, June.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nathalie Verhaeghe).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.