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A Comparison of Different Project Duration Forecasting Methods using Earned Value Metrics

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  • S. VANDEVOORDE
  • M. VANHOUCKE

    ()

Abstract

Earned value project management is a well-known management system that integrates cost, schedule and technical performance. It allows the calculation of cost and schedule variances and performance indices and forecasts of project cost and schedule duration. The earned value method provides early indications of project performance to highlight the need for eventual corrective action. Earned value management was originally developed for cost management and has not widely been used for forecasting project duration. However, recent research trends show an increase of interest to use performance indicators for predicting total project duration. In this paper, we give an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge for this new research trend to bring clarity in the often confusing terminology. The purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, we compare the classic earned value performance indicators SV & SPI with the newly developed earned schedule performance indicators SV(t) & SPI(t). Next, we present a generic schedule forecasting formula applicable in different project situations and compare the three methods from literature to forecast total project duration. Finally, we illustrate the use of each method on a simple one activity example project and on real-life project data.

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File URL: http://www.feb.ugent.be/nl/Ondz/wp/Papers/wp_05_312.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 05/312.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/312

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Related research

Keywords: Earned value; earned duration; earned schedule; project duration forecasting;

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  1. Bruno Merlevede & Koen Schoors, 2005. "How to Catch Foreign Fish? FDI and Privatization in EU Accession Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp785, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. A. Heirman & B. Clarysse, 2005. "The imprinting effect of initial resources and market strategy on the early growth path of start-Ups," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/310, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  3. S. CLAEYS & G. LANINE & K. SCHOORs, 2005. "Bank Supervision Russian Style: Rules vs Enforcement and Tacit Objectives," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/307, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  4. P. Everaert & G. Sarens, 2005. "Outsourcing bij Vlaamse Ondernemingen: een Exploratief Onderzoek," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/306, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Sophie Claeys, & Gleb Lanine & Koen Schoors, 2005. "Bank Supervision Russian style: Rules versus Enforcement and Tacit Objectives," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp778, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. A. Schollaert & D. Van De Gaer, 2005. "Boycotts, power politics or trust building: how to prevent conflict?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/308, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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