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Income Uncertainty and Aggregate Consumption

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  • L. POZZI

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    Abstract

    We investigate the relevance of aggregate and consumer-specific income uncertainty for aggregate consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of income risk on consumption changes is decomposed into an aggregate and into a consumer-specific part. Empirically, aggregate risk is modelled through a GARCH process on aggregate income shocks and individual risk is modelled as an unobserved component and obtained through Kalman filtering. Our results suggest that aggregate income risk explains a negligible fraction of the variance of aggregate consumption changes. A more important part of aggregate consumption changes is explained by the unobserved component. The interpretation of this component as reflecting consumer-specific income risk is supported by the finding that it is negatively affected by received consumer transfers.

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    File URL: http://www.feb.ugent.be/nl/Ondz/wp/Papers/wp_05_334.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 05/334.

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    Length: 52 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/334

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    Related research

    Keywords: income uncertainty; consumption; precaution; state space models; GARCH errors; unobserved component; Bayesian;

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    1. V. Vansteeger, 2005. "The current state of accounting harmonization: impediments to and benefits from harmonization," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/322, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. W. Bruggeman & P. Everaert & S. R. Anderson & Y. Levant, 2005. "Modeling Logistics Costs using Time-Driven ABC: A Case in a Distribution Company," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/332, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Vermeir,I. & Geuens, M., 2006. "Need for closure and youngsters' leisure time preferences," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2005-36, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
    4. W. Buckinx & G. Verstraeten & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "Predicting Customer Loyalty Using The Internal Transactional Database," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/324, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. E. Labro & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "A simulation analysis of interactions between errors in costing system design," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/333, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Bert Weijters & Maggie Geuens, 2002. "Evaluation of age-related labels by senior citizens," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2002-22, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
    7. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income uncertainty and aggregate consumption," Working Paper Research 77, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. G. Poels & A. Maes & F. Gailly, 2005. "User Attitudes towards Pattern-Based Enterprise Information Models: A Replicated Experiment with REA Diagrams," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/315, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Arne Schollaert & Dirk Van de gaer, 2008. "Boycotts, Power Politics, or Trust Building: How to Prevent Conflict?," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 164(2), pages 356-379, June.
    10. A. Karas & K. Schoors, 2005. "Heracles or Sisyphus? Finding, cleaning and reconstructing a database of Russian banks," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/327, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. S. Vandevoorde & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "A Comparison of Different Project Duration Forecasting Methods using Earned Value Metrics," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/312, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. B. Maenhout & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "An Electromagnetic Meta-Heuristic for the Nurse Scheduling Problem," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/316, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    13. G. Lanine & R. Vander Vennet, 2005. "Failure prediction in the Russian bank sector with logit and trait recognition models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/329, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    14. M. Vanhoucke & S. Vandevoorde, 2005. "A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/317, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    15. Claeys, Sophie & Lanine, Gleb & Schoors, Koen, 2005. "Bank supervision Russian style: Rules versus enforcement and tacit objectives," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. A. Maes & G. Poels & F. Gailly & R. Paemeleire, 2005. "Measuring User Beliefs and Attitudes towards Conceptual Models: A Factor and Structural Equation Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/311, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. P. Everaert & G. Sarens, 2005. "Outsourcing bij Vlaamse Ondernemingen: een Exploratief Onderzoek," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/306, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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    20. P. Windels & J. Christiaens, 2005. "Management Reform in Flemish Local Authorities: Testing the Institutional Framework," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/331, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    21. S. CLAEYS & G. LANINE & K. SCHOORs, 2005. "Bank Supervision Russian Style: Rules vs Enforcement and Tacit Objectives," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/307, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    22. B. Merlevede & K. Schoors, 2005. "How to Catch Foreign Fish? FDI and Privatisation in EU Accession Countries," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/309, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    23. W. Buckinx & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "Assessing and exploiting the profit function by modeling the net impact of targeted marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/330, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    24. A. Heirman & B. Clarysse, 2005. "The imprinting effect of initial resources and market strategy on the early growth path of start-Ups," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/310, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    25. M. Vanhoucke & D. Debels, 2005. "The Discrete Time/Cost Trade-Off Problem Under Various Assumptions Exact And Heuristic Procedures," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/314, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    26. D. Vantomme & M. Geuens & S. Dewitte, 2005. "How to Portray Men and Women in Advertisements? Explicit and Implicit Evaluations of Ads Depicting Different Gender Roles," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/319, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    27. G. Poels & F. Gailly & A. Maes & R. Paemeleire, 2005. "Object Class or Association Class? Testing the User Effect on Cardinality Interpretation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/323, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    28. M. Buelens & D. Bouckenooghe & D. De Clercq & A. Willem, 2005. "An Assessment of Validity in Small Business and Entrepreneurship Research," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/328, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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    Cited by:
    1. H. Ooghe & C. Spaenjers & P. Vandermoere, 2005. "Business failure prediction: simple-intuitive models versus statistical models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/338, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. J. Albrecht & M. Neyt & T. Verbeke, 2005. "Bureaucratisation and the growth of health care expenditures in Europe," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/335, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring Inflation Persistence: A Structural Time Series Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 459, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Jan Lepoutre & Nikolay Dentchev & Aimé Heene, 2007. "Dealing With Uncertainties When Governing CSR Policies," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 391-408, July.
    5. N. Geeroms & P. Van Kenhove & W. Verbeke, 2005. "Health Advertising to promote Fruit and Vegetable Intake: Application of need-related Health Audience Segmentation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/336, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. B. Maenhout & M. Vanhoucke, 2005. "New Computational Results for the Nurse Scheduling Problem: A Scatter Search Algorithm," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/341, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. M. Vanhoucke & B. Maenhout, 2005. "Characterisation and Generation of Nurse Scheduling Problem Instances," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/339, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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