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Income uncertainty and aggregate consumption

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  • L. Pozzi

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    (Ghent University, Study Hive for Economic Research and Public Policy Analysis (SHERPPA))

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    Abstract

    We investigate the relevance of aggregate and consumer-specific income uncertainty for aggregate consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of income risk on consumption changes is decomposed into an aggregate and into a consumer-specific part. Empirically, aggregate risk is modelled through a GARCH process on aggregate income shocks and individual risk is modelled as an unobserved component and obtained through Kalman filtering. Our results suggest that aggregate income risk explains a negligible fraction of the variance of aggregate consumption changes. A more important part of aggregate consumption changes is explained by the unobserved component. The interpretation of this component as reflecting consumer-specific income risk is supported by the finding that it is negatively affected by received consumer transfers.

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    File URL: http://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/WP77.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 77.

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    Length: 49 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200511-2

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    Related research

    Keywords: income uncertainty; consumption; precaution; state space models; GARCH errors; unobserved component; Bayesian.;

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    Cited by:
    1. Dossche, Maarten & Everaert, Gerdie, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Paper Series 0495, European Central Bank.
    2. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income Uncertainty and Aggregate Consumption," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/334, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. M. Vanhoucke & B. Maenhout, 2005. "Characterisation and Generation of Nurse Scheduling Problem Instances," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/339, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Maenhout, B. & Vanhoucke, M., 2006. "New computational results for the nurse scheduling problem: A scatter search algorithm," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2006-06, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
    5. J. Albrecht & M. Neyt & T. Verbeke, 2005. "Bureaucratisation and the growth of health care expenditures in Europe," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/335, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. H. Ooghe & C. Spaenjers & P. Vandermoere, 2005. "Business failure prediction: simple-intuitive models versus statistical models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/338, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Jan Lepoutre & Nikolay Dentchev & Aimé Heene, 2007. "Dealing With Uncertainties When Governing CSR Policies," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 391-408, July.
    8. N. Geeroms & P. Van Kenhove & W. Verbeke, 2005. "Health Advertising to promote Fruit and Vegetable Intake: Application of need-related Health Audience Segmentation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/336, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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