Government debt and the excess sensitivity of private consumption to current income: an empirical analysis for OECD countries
AbstractEmpirical studies typically find that private consumption is much more sensitive to changes in current disposable income than is predicted by Hall's (JPE, 1978) permanent income hypothesis. Standard explanations for this "excess sensitivity" of private consumption refer to liquidity constraints and/or myopia. Elaborating on existing theoretical literature, which suggests that the incidence of liquidity constraints and the degree of myopia may be affected by the government debt ratio, this paper investigates the role of government debt in the degree of excess sensitivity. Using a panel of OECD countries in the 1990s, we estimate a consumption function with the degree of excess sensitivity depending on the government debt ratio and the degree of financial liberalisation. We find that a higher government debt leads to more excess sensitivity. This result supports the idea that a higher debt induces private lenders to tighten credit conditions, which raises the incidence of liquidity constraints. As to the effects of financial liberalisation on excess sensitivity in the 1990s, we obtain no clear evidence.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 02/155.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2002
Date of revision:
fiscal policy; private consumption; liquidity constraints; government debt; panel data;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2000.
"Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alan Sutherland, .
"Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?,"
95/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Sutherland, Alan, 1997. "Fiscal crises and aggregate demand: can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 147-162, August.
- Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe BACCHETTA & Stefan GERLACH, 1997.
"Consumption and Credit Constraints : International Evidence,"
Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du DÃ©partement d'EconomÃ©trie et d'Economie politique (DEEP)
9707, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "Consumption and credit constraints: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 207-238, October.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "Consumption and Credit Constraints: International evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1727, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tim Callen & Christian Thimann, 1997. "Empirical Determinants of Household Saving," IMF Working Papers 97/181, International Monetary Fund.
- Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November.
- J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May.
- Yotsuzuka, Toshiki, 1987. "Ricardian equivalence in the presence of capital market imperfections," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 411-436, September.
- Stephen Bond & Frank Windmeijer, 2002.
"Finite Sample Inference for GMM Estimators in Linear Panel Data Models,"
10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002
C6-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Steve Bond & Frank Windmeijer, 2002. "Finite sample inference for GMM estimators in linear panel data models," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Pischke, J.S., 1993.
"Individual Income, Incomplete Information, and Aggregate Consumption,"
93-16, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Pischke, Jorn-Steffen, 1995. "Individual Income, Incomplete Information, and Aggregate Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 805-40, July.
- Pischke, J., 1992. "Individual Income, Incomplete Information, and Aggregate Consumption," Discussion Paper 1992-38, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Pischke, Jörn-Steffen, 1991. "Individual income, incomplete information, and aggregate consumption," ZEW Discussion Papers 91-07, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Pishke, J.S., 1992. "Individual Income, Incomplete Information and Aggregate Consumption," Papers 9238, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1998. "Liquidity Constraints and the Substitutability between Private and Government Consumption: The Role of Military and Non-military Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 203-14, April.
- Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1988. "Private Consumption, Inflation and the "Debt Neutrality Hypothesis": The Case of Eight OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 50, OECD Publishing.
- Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1988.
"Consumption and Capital Market Imperfection: An International Comparison,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
- Michael Creel, 2003. "Econometrics," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 575.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC), revised 12 Feb 2013.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "Tests for Liquidity Constraints: A Critical Survey," NBER Working Papers 1720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Haliassos, Michael & Christou, Costas, 2000. "Consumption Smoothing and Financial Integration in the European Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(6), pages 637-58, December.
- Heylen, Freddy & Everaert, Gerdie, 2000. " Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Multivariate Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 103-24, October.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1991.
91-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Blundell-Wignall, Adrian & Browne, Frank & Tarditi, Alison, 1995. "Financial Liberalization and the Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(2), pages 125-44, June.
- Slate, Stephen, et al, 1995. " Testing Ricardian Equivalence under Uncertainty," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(1-2), pages 11-29, October.
- Loayza, N. & Schmidt, K. & Serven, L., 1999.
"What Drives Private Saving Across the World?,"
47, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
- Nicoletti, Giuseppe, 1992. "Is Tax-Discounting Stable over Time?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 121-44, May.
- Basil A. DALAMAGAS, 1993. "Fiscal Effectiveness and Debt Illusion in a Rational Expectations Model," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 31, pages 129-146.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1991. "Buffer stock saving and the permanent income hypothesis," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- McKeirnan, Barbara, 1996. "Consumption and the credit market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 83-88, April.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1982. "Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 417-425.
- Eric Girardin & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2000. "Private consumption behaviour, liquidity constraints and financial deregulation in France: a nonlinear analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 351-368.
- Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
- Marjorie Flavin, 1985. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-36, February.
- D. Van den Poel, 2003.
"Predicting Mail-Order Repeat Buying. Which Variables Matter?,"
Review of Business and Economics,
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen, vol. 0(3), pages 371-404.
- D. Van Den Poel, 2003. "Predicting Mail-Order Repeat Buying: Which Variables Matter?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/191, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nathalie Verhaeghe).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.