IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/qmetal/2021_002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identifying the Economic Determinants of Individual Voting Behaviour in UK General Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Chrysanthou, Georgios Marios

    (Department of Economics, University of Bath, BA2 7AY, UK.)

  • Guilló, María Dolores

    (University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory)

Abstract

We explore the economic determinants of individual voting behaviour in five UK electoral cycles during 1992-2014. Using the Understanding Society and the British Household Panel Surveys, we investigate the importance of political sentiments and subjective economic evaluations disentangling persistence of party support and unobserved heterogeneity effects. We estimate joint dynamic tripartite models of party support and egocentric perceptions of current and prospective finances, permitting longitudinal simultaneous determination of perceptions of personal finances and political preferences. The results validate the economic voting hypothesis in cycles adjacent to economic downturns: support for the governing political party is positively related to individual perceptions of own financial wellbeing. Failing to account for simultaneity and not accounting for dynamics and initial political party support inflate the impact of personal financial evaluations.

Suggested Citation

  • Chrysanthou, Georgios Marios & Guilló, María Dolores, 2021. "Identifying the Economic Determinants of Individual Voting Behaviour in UK General Elections," QM&ET Working Papers 21-2, University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:qmetal:2021_002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://web.ua.es/es/dmcte/documentos/qmetwp2102.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Healy, Andrew J. & Persson, Mikael & Snowberg, Erik, 2017. "Digging into the Pocketbook: Evidence on Economic Voting from Income Registry Data Matched to a Voter Survey," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 771-785, November.
    2. Georgios Magkonis & Kalliopi‐Maria Zekente & Vasilios Logothetis, 2021. "Does the Left Spend More? An Econometric Survey of Partisan Politics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 1077-1099, August.
    3. Liberini, Federica & Oswald, Andrew J. & Proto, Eugenio & Redoano, Michela, 2019. "Was Brexit triggered by the old and unhappy? Or by financial feelings?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 287-302.
    4. Georgios Magkonis & Vasileios Logothetis & Kalliopi-Maria Zekente, 2019. "Does the Left Spend More?," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-03, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    5. Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia & Skrondal, Anders & Pickles, Andrew, 2005. "Maximum likelihood estimation of limited and discrete dependent variable models with nested random effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 301-323, October.
    6. Chrysanthou, Georgios Marios & Guilló, María Dolores, 2018. "The dynamics of political party support and egocentric economic evaluations: The Scottish case," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 192-213.
    7. Pudney, Stephen, 2011. "Perception and retrospection: The dynamic consistency of responses to survey questions on wellbeing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 300-310.
    8. Dieter Stiers & Anna Kern, 2021. "Cyclical accountability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 31-49, October.
    9. Bove, Vincenzo & Efthyvoulou, Georgios & Navas, Antonio, 2017. "Political cycles in public expenditure: butter vs guns," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 582-604.
    10. Alfonso Miranda & Sophia Rabe-Hesketh, 2006. "Maximum likelihood estimation of endogenous switching and sample selection models for binary, ordinal, and count variables," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(3), pages 285-308, September.
    11. Konstantinos Matakos & Dimitrios Xefteris, 2020. "Economic insecurity and political stability: a case for growth-targeting systemic vote," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 829-862.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chrysanthou, Georgios Marios & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2019. "The Impact of Bullying Victimisation on Mental Wellbeing," QM&ET Working Papers 19-1, University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory.
    2. Quinones, Esteban J. & Barham, Bradford L., 2018. "Endogenous Selection, Migration and Occupation Outcomes for Rural Southern Mexicans," Staff Paper Series 587, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    3. Ferreira, Maria & de Grip, Andries & van der Velden, Rolf, 2018. "Does informal learning at work differ between temporary and permanent workers? Evidence from 20 OECD countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 18-40.
    4. Ferreira Sequeda, M.T. & de Grip, A. & van der Velden, R.K.W., 2015. "Does on-the-job informal learning in OECD countries differ by contract duration," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    5. Reyes, Alvaro & Lensink, Robert & Kuyvenhoven, Arie & Moll, Henk, 2012. "Dynamics of Investment for Market-Oriented Farmers in Chile," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126218, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Chrysanthou, Georgios Marios & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2018. "The Dynamics and Determinants of Bullying Victimisation," IZA Discussion Papers 11902, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:42:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Drinkwater, Stephen & Blackaby, David H. & Robinson, Catherine, 2024. "What Mattered Most in the Brexit Vote? Evidence from Detailed Regression and Decomposition Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 16841, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Hazwan Haini & Pang Wei Loon, 2021. "Does Government Ideology Affect the Relationship Between Government Spending and Economic Growth?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(3), pages 209-216, September.
    10. Hiroaki Masuhara, 2008. "Semi-nonparametric count data estimation with an endogenous binary variable," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(42), pages 1-13.
    11. Lee-Gosselin, Martin & Miranda-Moreno, Luis F., 2009. "What is different about urban activities of those with access to ICTs? Some early evidence from Québec, Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 104-114.
    12. Luiz Paulo Fávero & Joseph F. Hair & Rafael de Freitas Souza & Matheus Albergaria & Talles V. Brugni, 2021. "Zero-Inflated Generalized Linear Mixed Models: A Better Way to Understand Data Relationships," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-28, May.
    13. Gächter, Simon & Starmer, Chris & Tufano, Fabio, 2022. "Measuring "Group Cohesion" to Reveal the Power of Social Relationships in Team Production," IZA Discussion Papers 15512, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Saul Estrin & Julia Korosteleva & Tomasz Mickiewicz, 2022. "Schumpeterian Entry: Innovation, Exporting, and Growth Aspirations of Entrepreneurs," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 46(2), pages 269-296, March.
    15. Godager, Geir & Iversen, Tor & Ma, Ching-to Albert, 2015. "Competition, gatekeeping, and health care access," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 159-170.
    16. Namin, Aidin & Soysal, Gonca P. & Ratchford, Brian T., 2022. "Alleviating demand uncertainty for seasonal goods: An analysis of attribute-based markdown policy for fashion retailers," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 671-681.
    17. Gupta, Sanjeev & Liu, Estelle X. & Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 2016. "Now or later? The political economy of public investment in democracies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 101-114.
    18. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2019. "Information aggregation in Arrow–Debreu markets: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 625-652, September.
    19. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Political budget cycles in military expenditures: A meta-analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1083-1102.
    20. Simen G. Enger & Fulvio Castellacci, 2016. "Who gets Horizon 2020 research grants? Propensity to apply and probability to succeed in a two-step analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 109(3), pages 1611-1638, December.
    21. Simona Iammarino & Elisabetta Marinelli & Elisabetta Marinelli, 2011. "Is the Grass Greener on the other Side of the Fence? Graduate Mobility and Job Satisfaction in Italy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 43(11), pages 2761-2777, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    egocentric economic evaluations; voting behaviour; political preferences; joint models; simultaneity; unobserved heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:qmetal:2021_002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julio Carmona (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dmalies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.