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Modeling the Diffusion of Residential Photovoltaic Systems in Italy: An Agent-based Simulation

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  • Palmer, Johannes

    ()
    (RWTH Aachen University)

  • Sorda, Giovanni

    ()
    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    ()
    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

Abstract

We propose an agent-based model to simulate the diffusion of small PV systems among single- or two-family homes in Italy over the 2006-2026 period. To this end,we explicitly model the geographical distribution of the agents in order to account for regional differences across the country. The adoption decision is assumed to be influenced predominantly by (1) the payback period of the investment, (2) its environmental benefit, (3) the household’s income, and (4) the influence of communication with other agents. For the estimation of the payback period, the model considers investment costs, local irradiation levels, governmental support, earnings from using self-produced electricity vs. buying electricity from the grid, as well as various administrative fees and maintenance costs. The environmental benefit is estimated by a proxy for the CO2 emissions saved. The level of the household income is associated with the specific economic conditions of the region where the agent is located, as well as the agent’s socio-economic group (age group, level of education, household type). Finally, the influence of communication is measured by the number of links with other households that have already adopted a PV system. In each simulation step, the program dynamically updates the social system and the communication network, while the evolution of the PV system’s investment costs depend on a one-factor experience curve model that is based on the exogeneous development of the global installed PV capacity. Our results show that Italy’s domestic PV installations are already beyond an initial stage of rapid growth and, though likely to spread further, they will do so at a significantly slower rate of diffusion.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) in its series FCN Working Papers with number 9/2013.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2013_009

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Keywords: PV; Technological diffusion; Agent-based modeling; Italy;

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References

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  66. Kraas, Birk & Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion & Pulvermüller, Benedikt & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 12/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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  68. Madlener, Reinhard & Specht, Jan Martin, 2013. "An Exploratory Economic Analysis of Underground Pumped-Storage Hydro Power Plants in Abandoned Coal Mines," FCN Working Papers 2/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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Cited by:
  1. Bruns, Stephan B. & Gross, Christian, 2013. "What if energy time series are not independent? Implications for energy-GDP causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 753-759.
  2. Michelsen , Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Switching from Fossil Fuel to Renewables in Residential Heating Systems: An Empirical Study of Homeowners’ Decisions in Germany," FCN Working Papers 14/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  3. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Optimal Power Generation Investment: Impact of Technology Choices and Existing Portfolios for Deploying Low-Carbon Coal Technologies," FCN Working Papers 12/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  4. McCoy, Daire & Lyons, Sean, 2014. "The diffusion of electric vehicles: An agent-based microsimulation," MPRA Paper 54560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Willingness-to-Pay for Alternative Fuel Vehicle Characteristics: A Stated Choice Study for Germany," FCN Working Papers 20/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  6. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Challenges in the Evaluation of Ultra-Long-Lived Projects: Risk Premia for Projects with Eternal Returns or Costs," FCN Working Papers 13/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

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