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Projected costs of a grid-connected domestic PV system under different scenarios in Ireland, using measured data from a trial installation

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  • Ayompe, L.M.
  • Duffy, A.
  • McCormack, S.J.
  • Conlon, M.

Abstract

This paper presents results of a study of projected costs for a grid-connected PV system for domestic application in Ireland. The study is based on results from a 1.72 kWp PV system installed on a flat rooftop in Dublin, Ireland. During its first year of operation a total of 885.1 kWh/kWp of electricity was generated with a performance ratio of 81.5%. The scenarios employed in this study consider: a range of capital costs; cost dynamics based on a PV module learning rate of 20±5%; projections for global annual installed PV capacity under an advanced and moderate market growth conditions; domestic electricity cost growth of 4.5% based on historic data; and a reduction of 25% or 50% in the CO2 intensity of national electricity production by 2055. These scenarios are used to predict when system life cycle production costs fall to grid prices (grid parity). Average NPV and electricity generation costs ranged from -[euro]14,330 and 0.58 [euro]/kWh and were close to zero and 0.18 [euro]/kWh for a system installed in 2009 and 2030, respectively. However, under optimistic conditions NPVs are positive for systems installed after 2021 and grid parity occurs in 2016. Findings are compared with similar international studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayompe, L.M. & Duffy, A. & McCormack, S.J. & Conlon, M., 2010. "Projected costs of a grid-connected domestic PV system under different scenarios in Ireland, using measured data from a trial installation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3731-3743, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:7:p:3731-3743
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Patricia Milanés-Montero & Alberto Arroyo-Farrona & Esteban Pérez-Calderón, 2018. "Assessment of the Influence of Feed-In Tariffs on the Profitability of European Photovoltaic Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Palmer, J. & Sorda, G. & Madlener, R., 2015. "Modeling the diffusion of residential photovoltaic systems in Italy: An agent-based simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 106-131.
    4. Breyer, Christian & Koskinen, Otto & Blechinger, Philipp, 2015. "Profitable climate change mitigation: The case of greenhouse gas emission reduction benefits enabled by solar photovoltaic systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 610-628.
    5. Stevanović, Sanja & Pucar, Mila, 2012. "Investment appraisal of a small, grid-connected photovoltaic plant under the Serbian feed-in tariff framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1673-1682.
    6. Zou, Hongyang & Du, Huibin & Brown, Marilyn A. & Mao, Guozhu, 2017. "Large-scale PV power generation in China: A grid parity and techno-economic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 256-268.
    7. Hernández-Moro, J. & Martínez-Duart, J.M., 2013. "Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs: Present LCOE values and their future evolution," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 119-132.
    8. dos Santos, L.L.C. & Canha, L.N. & Bernardon, D.P., 2018. "Projection of the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in residential low voltage consumers," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 384-401.
    9. Jägemann, Cosima & Hagspiel, Simeon & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "The Economic Inefficiency of Grid Parity: The Case of German Photovoltaics," EWI Working Papers 2013-19, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).

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