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Projected costs of a grid-connected domestic PV system under different scenarios in Ireland, using measured data from a trial installation

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  • Ayompe, L.M.
  • Duffy, A.
  • McCormack, S.J.
  • Conlon, M.
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    Abstract

    This paper presents results of a study of projected costs for a grid-connected PV system for domestic application in Ireland. The study is based on results from a 1.72 kWp PV system installed on a flat rooftop in Dublin, Ireland. During its first year of operation a total of 885.1 kWh/kWp of electricity was generated with a performance ratio of 81.5%. The scenarios employed in this study consider: a range of capital costs; cost dynamics based on a PV module learning rate of 20±5%; projections for global annual installed PV capacity under an advanced and moderate market growth conditions; domestic electricity cost growth of 4.5% based on historic data; and a reduction of 25% or 50% in the CO2 intensity of national electricity production by 2055. These scenarios are used to predict when system life cycle production costs fall to grid prices (grid parity). Average NPV and electricity generation costs ranged from -[euro]14,330 and 0.58 [euro]/kWh and were close to zero and 0.18 [euro]/kWh for a system installed in 2009 and 2030, respectively. However, under optimistic conditions NPVs are positive for systems installed after 2021 and grid parity occurs in 2016. Findings are compared with similar international studies.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4YKFMY9-4/2/044c7479798c0cee902767e1130fa1d6
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 7 (July)
    Pages: 3731-3743

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:7:p:3731-3743

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: PV system Net present value (NPV) Grid parity;

    References

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    1. Shum, Kwok L. & Watanabe, Chihiro, 2008. "Towards a local learning (innovation) model of solar photovoltaic deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 508-521, February.
    2. Neij, Lena, 2008. "Cost development of future technologies for power generation--A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 2200-2211, June.
    3. Ferioli, F. & Schoots, K. & van der Zwaan, B.C.C., 2009. "Use and limitations of learning curves for energy technology policy: A component-learning hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2525-2535, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jägemann, Cosima & Hagspiel, Simeon & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "The Economic Inefficiency of Grid Parity: The Case of German Photovoltaics," EWI Working Papers 2013-19, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
    2. Palmer, Johannes & Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Modeling the Diffusion of Residential Photovoltaic Systems in Italy: An Agent-based Simulation," FCN Working Papers 9/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

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