Projected costs of a grid-connected domestic PV system under different scenarios in Ireland, using measured data from a trial installation
AbstractThis paper presents results of a study of projected costs for a grid-connected PV system for domestic application in Ireland. The study is based on results from a 1.72Â kWp PV system installed on a flat rooftop in Dublin, Ireland. During its first year of operation a total of 885.1Â kWh/kWp of electricity was generated with a performance ratio of 81.5%. The scenarios employed in this study consider: a range of capital costs; cost dynamics based on a PV module learning rate of 20Â±5%; projections for global annual installed PV capacity under an advanced and moderate market growth conditions; domestic electricity cost growth of 4.5% based on historic data; and a reduction of 25% or 50% in the CO2 intensity of national electricity production by 2055. These scenarios are used to predict when system life cycle production costs fall to grid prices (grid parity). Average NPV and electricity generation costs ranged from -[euro]14,330 and 0.58Â [euro]/kWh and were close to zero and 0.18Â [euro]/kWh for a system installed in 2009 and 2030, respectively. However, under optimistic conditions NPVs are positive for systems installed after 2021 and grid parity occurs in 2016. Findings are compared with similar international studies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.
Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
PV system Net present value (NPV) Grid parity;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ferioli, F. & Schoots, K. & van der Zwaan, B.C.C., 2009. "Use and limitations of learning curves for energy technology policy: A component-learning hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2525-2535, July.
- Ren, Hongbo & Gao, Weijun & Ruan, Yingjun, 2009. "Economic optimization and sensitivity analysis of photovoltaic system in residential buildings," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 883-889.
- Shum, Kwok L. & Watanabe, Chihiro, 2008. "Towards a local learning (innovation) model of solar photovoltaic deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 508-521, February.
- Neij, Lena, 2008. "Cost development of future technologies for power generation--A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 2200-2211, June.
- Palmer, Johannes & Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Modeling the Diffusion of Residential Photovoltaic Systems in Italy: An Agent-based Simulation," FCN Working Papers 9/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Jägemann, Cosima & Hagspiel, Simeon & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "The Economic Inefficiency of Grid Parity: The Case of German Photovoltaics," EWI Working Papers 2013-19, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.