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Simulating the Adoption of Fuel Cell Vehicles

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  • Malte Schwoon

Abstract

Supply security and environmental concerns associated with oil call for an introduction of hydrogen as a transport fuel. To date, scenario studies of infrastructure build up and sales of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are driven by cost estimates and technological feasibility assumptions, indicating that there is a "chicken and egg problem": Car producers do not offer FCVs as long as there are no hydrogen filling stations, and infrastructure will not be set up unless there is a significant number of FCVs on the road. This diffusion barrier is often used as an argument for a major (public) infrastructure program, neglecting that the automobile market is highly competitive and car producers, consumers, and filling station operators form an interdependent dynamic system, where taxes influence technology choice. In this paper, an agent-based model is used that captures the main interdependencies to simulate possible diffusion paths of FCVs. The results suggest that a tax on conventional cars can successfully promote diffusion even without a major infrastructure program. However, consumers and individual producers are affected differently by the tax, indicating that differently strong resistance towards such a policy can be anticipated. Moreover, there is evidence that some producers might benefit from cooperation with filling station operators to generate a faster build up of infrastructure.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/WP-FNU-59schwoon_adoption_fcv.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-59.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision: Feb 2006
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:59

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Related research

Keywords: Diffusion Process; Agent Based Modeling; Hydrogen Economy; Alternative Fuel Vehicles;

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Cited by:
  1. Jeroen Bergh, 2007. "Evolutionary thinking in environmental economics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 521-549, October.
  2. Paolo Zeppini & Koen Frenken & Roland Kupers, 2013. "Threshold models of technological transitions," Working Papers 13-06, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies, revised Aug 2013.
  3. Kaufmann, Peter & Stagl, Sigrid & Franks, Daniel W., 2009. "Simulating the diffusion of organic farming practices in two New EU Member States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2580-2593, August.
  4. Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2007. "Evolutionary Thinking in Environmental Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-018/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Karolina Safarzyńska & Jeroen Bergh, 2010. "Evolutionary models in economics: a survey of methods and building blocks," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 329-373, June.
  6. Floris J. Huétink & Alexander van der Vooren & Floortje Alkemade, 2009. "Initial infrastructure development strategies for the transition to sustainable mobility," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 09-05, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Mar 2009.
  7. Malte Schwoon, 2006. "A Tool to Optimize the Initial Distribution of Hydrogen Filling Stations," Working Papers FNU-110, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2006.
  8. van der Vooren & Eric Brouillat, 2013. "Evaluating CO2 reduction policy portfolios in the automotive sector," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 13-01, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Feb 2013.
  9. Köhler, Jonathan & Whitmarsh, Lorraine & Nykvist, Björn & Schilperoord, Michel & Bergman, Noam & Haxeltine, Alex, 2009. "A transitions model for sustainable mobility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2985-2995, October.
  10. Maya Sopha, Bertha & Klöckner, Christian A. & Hertwich, Edgar G., 2011. "Exploring policy options for a transition to sustainable heating system diffusion using an agent-based simulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2722-2729, May.
  11. Sopha, Bertha Maya & Klöckner, Christian A. & Skjevrak, Geir & Hertwich, Edgar G., 2010. "Norwegian households' perception of wood pellet stove compared to air-to-air heat pump and electric heating," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3744-3754, July.
  12. Wang-Helmreich, Hanna & Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Natural Gas in Road Transportation - A Low-emission Bridging Technology?," EWI Working Papers 2011-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  13. Frank Beckenbach & Maria Daskalakis & David Hofmann, 2012. "Agent-based modelling of novelty creating behavior and sectoral growth effects—Linking the creative and the destructive side of innovation," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 513-542, July.
  14. Valeria Costantini & Francesco Crespi, 2013. "Public policies for a sustainable energy sector: regulation, diversity and fostering of innovation," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 401-429, April.
  15. Palmer, Johannes & Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Modeling the Diffusion of Residential Photovoltaic Systems in Italy: An Agent-based Simulation," FCN Working Papers 9/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  16. Albert Faber & Koen Frenken, 2008. "Models in evolutionary economics and environmental policy: Towards an evolutionary environmental economics," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 08-15, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Apr 2008.
  17. Petschnig, Martin & Heidenreich, Sven & Spieth, Patrick, 2014. "Innovative alternatives take action – Investigating determinants of alternative fuel vehicle adoption," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 68-83.
  18. Malte Schwoon, 2006. "Learning-by-doing, Learning Spillovers and the Diffusion of Fuel Cell Vehicles," Working Papers FNU-112, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2006.

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