Simulating the Adoption of Fuel Cell Vehicles
AbstractSupply security and environmental concerns associated with oil call for an introduction of hydrogen as a transport fuel. To date, scenario studies of infrastructure build up and sales of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are driven by cost estimates and technological feasibility assumptions, indicating that there is a "chicken and egg problem": Car producers do not offer FCVs as long as there are no hydrogen filling stations, and infrastructure will not be set up unless there is a significant number of FCVs on the road. This diffusion barrier is often used as an argument for a major (public) infrastructure program, neglecting that the automobile market is highly competitive and car producers, consumers, and filling station operators form an interdependent dynamic system, where taxes influence technology choice. In this paper, an agent-based model is used that captures the main interdependencies to simulate possible diffusion paths of FCVs. The results suggest that a tax on conventional cars can successfully promote diffusion even without a major infrastructure program. However, consumers and individual producers are affected differently by the tax, indicating that differently strong resistance towards such a policy can be anticipated. Moreover, there is evidence that some producers might benefit from cooperation with filling station operators to generate a faster build up of infrastructure.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-59.
Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision: Feb 2006
Diffusion Process; Agent Based Modeling; Hydrogen Economy; Alternative Fuel Vehicles;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
- D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
- D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2007-03-31 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-INO-2007-03-31 (Innovation)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Kaufmann, Peter & Stagl, Sigrid & Franks, Daniel W., 2009. "Simulating the diffusion of organic farming practices in two New EU Member States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2580-2593, August.
- Malte Schwoon, 2006. "A Tool to Optimize the Initial Distribution of Hydrogen Filling Stations," Working Papers FNU-110, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2006.
- Paolo Zeppini & Koen Frenken & Roland Kupers, 2013.
"Threshold models of technological transitions,"
13-06, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies, revised Aug 2013.
- Paolo Zeppini & Koen Frenken & Roland Kupers, 2013. "Threshold models of technological transitions," Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series 13-06, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS), revised Aug 2013.
- van der Vooren & Eric Brouillat, 2013. "Evaluating CO2 reduction policy portfolios in the automotive sector," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 13-01, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Feb 2013.
- Maya Sopha, Bertha & Klöckner, Christian A. & Hertwich, Edgar G., 2011. "Exploring policy options for a transition to sustainable heating system diffusion using an agent-based simulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2722-2729, May.
- Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2007.
"Evolutionary Thinking in Environmental Economics,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
07-018/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Valeria Costantini & Francesco Crespi, 2013.
"Public policies for a sustainable energy sector: regulation, diversity and fostering of innovation,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 401-429, April.
- Costantini, Valeria & Crespi, Francesco, 2009. "Public policies for a sustainable energy sector: regulation, diversity and fostering of innovation," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 200915, University of Turin.
- Floris J. Huétink & Alexander van der Vooren & Floortje Alkemade, 2009. "Initial infrastructure development strategies for the transition to sustainable mobility," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 09-05, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Mar 2009.
- Palmer, Johannes & Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Modeling the Diffusion of Residential Photovoltaic Systems in Italy: An Agent-based Simulation," FCN Working Papers 9/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Sopha, Bertha Maya & Klöckner, Christian A. & Skjevrak, Geir & Hertwich, Edgar G., 2010. "Norwegian households' perception of wood pellet stove compared to air-to-air heat pump and electric heating," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3744-3754, July.
- Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2007. "Evolutionary Thinking in Environmental Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-018/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Frank Beckenbach & Maria Daskalakis & David Hofmann, 2012. "Agent-based modelling of novelty creating behavior and sectoral growth effects—Linking the creative and the destructive side of innovation," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 513-542, July.
- Köhler, Jonathan & Whitmarsh, Lorraine & Nykvist, Björn & Schilperoord, Michel & Bergman, Noam & Haxeltine, Alex, 2009. "A transitions model for sustainable mobility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2985-2995, October.
- Malte Schwoon, 2006. "Learning-by-doing, Learning Spillovers and the Diffusion of Fuel Cell Vehicles," Working Papers FNU-112, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2006.
- Petschnig, Martin & Heidenreich, Sven & Spieth, Patrick, 2014. "Innovative alternatives take action – Investigating determinants of alternative fuel vehicle adoption," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 68-83.
- Wang-Helmreich, Hanna & Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Natural Gas in Road Transportation - A Low-emission Bridging Technology?," EWI Working Papers 2011-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
- Albert Faber & Koen Frenken, 2008. "Models in evolutionary economics and environmental policy: Towards an evolutionary environmental economics," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 08-15, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Apr 2008.
- Karolina Safarzyńska & Jeroen Bergh, 2010. "Evolutionary models in economics: a survey of methods and building blocks," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 329-373, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Uwe Schneider).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.