IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbiwp/0823.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Skilled Emigration on Real Exchange Rates through the Wage Channel

Author

Listed:
  • Ouyang, Alice Y.

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Paul, Saumik

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

Building on an analytical model, we provide cross-country empirical evidence that net skilled emigration appreciates bilateral real exchange rates through the wage channel in source countries. Chains of causality in the presence of the Law of One Price run through the “spending effect” and the “resource allocation effect,” analogous to the remittance-based Dutch disease effect. A pricing-to-market model allows pass-through for both traded and nontraded prices when the Law of One Price is violated. The skilled emigration elasticity of real exchange rate is estimated to be in the range of between .6 and .8, with internal prices playing a dominant role. Alternative model specifications show robust outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ouyang, Alice Y. & Paul, Saumik, 2018. "The Effect of Skilled Emigration on Real Exchange Rates through the Wage Channel," ADBI Working Papers 823, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/411116/adbi-wp823.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard B. FREEMAN & Remco H. OOSTENDORP, 2001. "The Occupational Wages around the World data file," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 140(4), pages 379-401, December.
    2. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 2001. "Trade in capital goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1195-1235.
    3. Jason Gagnon, 2011. "“Stay With Us?” The Impact of Emigration on Wages in Honduras," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 300, OECD Publishing.
    4. Betts, Caroline M. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2006. "U.S. real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1297-1326, October.
    5. Abdurrahman Aydemir & George J. Borjas, 2007. "Cross-Country Variation in the Impact of International Migration: Canada, Mexico, and the United States," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(4), pages 663-708, June.
    6. Gazi M. Hassan & Mark J. Holmes, 2013. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(35), pages 4959-4970, December.
    7. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
    8. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," NBER Working Papers 11657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kuncic, Aljaz, 2012. "Institutional quality database," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 457, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Burstein, Ariel & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "The importance of nontradable goods' prices in cyclical real exchange rate fluctuations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 247-253, August.
    11. repec:pdn:wpaper:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    13. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    14. Bouton, Lawrence & Paul, Saumik & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2011. "The impact of emigration on source country wages : evidence from the Republic of Moldova," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5764, The World Bank.
    15. J. Bradford Jensen & Lori G. Kletzer, 2010. "Measuring Tradable Services and the Task Content of Offshorable Services Jobs," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 309-335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Mayda, Anna Maria, 2005. "International Migration: A Panel Data Analysis of Economic and Non-Economic Determinants," IZA Discussion Papers 1590, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Mishra, Prachi, 2007. "Emigration and wages in source countries: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 180-199, January.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    19. Yana Pryymachenko & Klas Fregert & Fredrik N. G. Andersson, 2013. "The effect of emigration on unemployment: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European EU member states," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2692-2697.
    20. Artuc, Erhan & Docquier, Frédéric & Özden, Çaglar & Parsons, Christopher, 2015. "A Global Assessment of Human Capital Mobility: The Role of Non-OECD Destinations," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 6-26.
    21. Arusha Cooray & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Does corruption promote emigration? An empirical examination," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 293-310, January.
    22. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    23. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2013. "Real exchange rate fluctuations and the relative importance of nontradables," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 844-855.
    24. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
    25. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey & Federico S. Mandelman & Pablo A. Acosta, 2012. "Remittances, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 377-395, May.
    26. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    27. Clemens, Michael A. & Özden, Çağlar & Rapoport, Hillel, 2014. "Migration and Development Research is Moving Far Beyond Remittances," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 121-124.
    28. Prachi Mishra & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Wages in an Integrated World," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 53-84, October.
    29. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    30. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2011. "Pricing-to-Market and the Failure of Absolute PPP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 91-127, January.
    31. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Anjali Garg, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa: What's the Damage?," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 12(1), pages 73-96.
    32. Michael A. Clemens & Caglar Ozden & Hillel Rapoport, 2014. "Migration and Development Research Is Moving Far beyond Remittances (2014)," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-01161671, HAL.
    33. George J. Borjas, 2021. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 9, pages 235-274, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    34. Robert E.B. Lucas, 2005. "International Migration and Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3826.
    35. Eugen Dimant & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2013. "The effect of corruption on migration,1985--2000," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1270-1274, September.
    36. Michael Clemens, Çaglar Özden, and Hillel Rapoport, 2014. "Migration and Development Research Is Moving Far beyond Remittances - Working Paper 365," Working Papers 365, Center for Global Development.
    37. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2005. "The Real Exchange Rate And The Balassa-Samuelson Effect: The Role Of The Distribution Sector," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 29-48, February.
    38. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert & Wessels, Roberto E., 1995. "The structure of international stock returns and the integration of capital markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 173-197, September.
    39. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August.
    40. Lucas, Robert E B, 1987. "Emigration to South Africa's Mines," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 313-330, June.
    41. Marjit, Sugata & Kar, Saibal, 2005. "Emigration and wage inequality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 141-145, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saumik Paul & Yoko Oishi, 2018. "A Primer on the Drivers of Labor Income Share," Working Papers id:12948, eSocialSciences.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ouyang, Alice & Paul, Saumik, 2015. "Skilled Emigration, Wages and Real Exchange Rate in a Globalized World," CEI Working Paper Series 2014-11, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Anna De Paoli & Mariapia Mendola, 2017. "International Migration and Child labour in Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 678-702, April.
    3. Anna De Paoli & Mariapia Mendola, 2014. "International Labor Mobility and Child Work in Developing Countries," Development Working Papers 365, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 07 Apr 2014.
    4. Laurent Bossavie & Çağlar Özden, 2023. "Impacts of Temporary Migration on Development in Origin Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 38(2), pages 249-294.
    5. De Paoli, Anna & Mendola, Mariapia, 2014. "International Labor Mobility and Child Work in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 8066, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Muntasir Murshed & Seemran Rashid, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Responses to Foreign Currency Inflows: Revisiting the Dutch Disease Phenomenon in South Asia," The Economics and Finance Letters, Conscientia Beam, vol. 7(1), pages 23-46.
    7. Thierry Baudassé & Rémi Bazillier & Ismaël Issifou, 2018. "Migration And Institutions: Exit And Voice (From Abroad)?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 727-766, July.
    8. Timo Baas & Silvia Maja Melzer, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances: A sending country perspective," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012021, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    9. Hao, Linna & Ahmad, Shabbir & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Knowledge spill-over and institutional quality role in controlling Dutch disease: A case of BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Lein‐Lein Chen & Seungmook Choi & John Devereux, 2015. "Explaining price level differences: New evidence on the Balassa–Samuelson effect," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(1), pages 81-99, July.
    11. Benjamin Elsner, 2013. "Does emigration benefit the stayers? Evidence from EU enlargement," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 531-553, April.
    12. Maxym Chaban, 2010. "Cointegration analysis with structural breaks and deterministic trends: an application to the Canadian dollar," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 3023-3037.
    13. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2010. "Understanding Real Exchange Rate Movements With Trade In Intermediate Products," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 171-188, May.
    14. Hien, Nguyen Phuc & Hong Vinh, Cao Thi & Phuong Mai, Vu Thi & Kim Xuyen, Le Thi, 2020. "Remittances, real exchange rate and the Dutch disease in Asian developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 131-143.
    15. Nader NEFZI & Joël OUDINET & Mouez SOUSSI, 2020. "Transferts de fonds des migrants et mésalignement du change réel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 51, pages 87-114.
    16. Nicolas Cachanosky, 2014. "The Mises-Hayek business cycle theory, fiat currencies and open economies," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 281-299, September.
    17. Narcisse Cha'Ngom & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2023. "Selective Migration and Economic Development: A Generalized Approach," LISER Working Paper Series 2023-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    18. Zhang, Wei-Wei & Sadiq, Ramla & Khan, Tahseen Mohsan & Khan, Muhammad Mohsan, 2021. "Policy implications of remittances, trade liberalization and Dutch disease – A comparative analysis based on income categorization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Ugur Ciplak, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Relative Prices in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 7(2), pages 29-48.
    20. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2013. "Real exchange rate fluctuations and the relative importance of nontradables," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 844-855.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emigration; exchange rate; the Dutch disease;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0823. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ADB Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/adbinjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.